Goldman Sachs Says U.S. Economy May Be `Fairly Bad'

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the U.S. economy is likely to be “fairly bad” or “very bad” over the next six to nine months.

“We see two main scenarios,” analysts led by Jan Hatzius, the New York-based chief U.S. economist at the company, wrote in an e-mail to clients. “A fairly bad one in which the economy grows at a 1 1/2 percent to 2 percent rate through the middle of next year and the unemployment rate rises moderately to 10 percent, and a very bad one in which the economy returns to an outright recession.”

The Federal Reserve will probably move to spur growth as soon as its next meeting on Nov. 2-3, Hatzius said. Expectations for central bank action have already led to lower interest rates, higher stock prices and a weaker dollar, according to Goldman, one of the 18 primary dealers that are required to bid at government debt sales.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his fellow policy makers are debating whether to increase Treasury purchases to spur the U.S. economy by keeping borrowing costs low. U.S. five-year yields dropped to a record 1.1755 percent today amid signs the recovery is losing momentum.

The “fairly bad” outlook for slow growth and rising unemployment without a recession will probably be the one that occurs, the e-mail said.

Renewed Recession

Hatzius’ note reiterated comments he made yesterday at a forum in Washington, when he placed the odds of a renewed recession at 25 percent to 30 percent. He told reporters that was up from 15 percent to 20 percent at the start of the year.

Another $1 trillion of asset purchases by the Fed would probably lower long-term interest rates by about 0.25 percentage point, adding a “few tenths of additional GDP growth,” he said yesterday.

The Fed bought $1.7 trillion worth of Treasury and mortgage debt in a program that ended in March. The purchases helped push mortgage rates to historic lows.

New York Fed President William Dudley, the Boston Fed’s Eric Rosengren and Chicago’s Charles Evans have all advocated further Fed action. Bernanke said Oct. 4 that restarting large- scale asset purchases would probably spur growth, after saying last week the central bank has a duty to aid the economy as unemployment holds near 10 percent.

Do your company really create value for shareholders? Measure it by EVA - Economic Value Added (EVA)

The goal of all companies is to create value for the shareholder. But how is value measured? Wouldn't it be nice if there were a simple method to figure out whether a company is creating wealth?

A growing number of analysts and consultants think there is an answer. Like many economic formulas, the measure - economic value added (EVA) - is both intriguingly clever and deceptive. Does EVA simplify the task of finding value-generating companies or does it just muddy the waters? For that we need to understand what is economic value added (EVA)

What Is EVA?
EVA is a performance metric that calculates the creation of shareholder value, but it distinguishes itself from traditional financial performance metrics such as net profit and earnings per share (EPS). EVA is the calculation of what profits remain after the costs of a company's capital - both debt and equity - are deducted from operating profit. The idea is simple but rigorous: true profit should account for the cost of capital.

To understand the difference between EVA and its older cousin, net income, let's use an example based on a hypothetical company, ABC. ABC 's earned $100,000 on a capital base of $1 million thanks to big sales of stew pots. Traditional accounting metrics suggest that ABC is doing a good job. The company offers a return on capital of 10%. However, ABC 's has only been operating for a year, and the market for stew pots still carries significant uncertainty and risk. Debt obligations plus the required return that investors demand for having their money locked up in an early-stage venture add up to an investment cost of capital of 13%. That means that, although ABC 's is enjoying accounting profits, the company lost 3% last year for its shareholders.

Conversely , if ABC 's capital is $100 million - including debt and shareholder equity - and the cost of using that capital (interest on debt and the cost of underwriting the equity) is $13 million a year, ABC will add economic value for his shareholders only when profits are more than $13 million a year. If ABC 's earns $20 million, the company's EVA will be $7 million.

In other words, EVA charges the company rent for tying up investors' cash to support operations. There is a hidden opportunity cost that goes to investors to compensate them for forfeiting the use of their own cash. EVA captures this hidden cost of capital that conventional measures ignore.

Developed by the management consulting firm Stern Stewart, EVA really caught fire in the 1990s. Big corporations, including Coca-Cola, GE and AT&T, employ EVA internally to measure wealth creation performance. In turn, investors and analysts are now scrutinizing company EVA just as in the past they observed EPS and P/E ratios. Stern Stewart has gone so far as to trademark the concept.

The Calculation:
There are four steps in the calculation of EVA:

1. Calculate Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT)
2. Calculate Total Invested Capital (TC)
3. Determine a Cost of Capital (WACC)
4. Calculate EVA = NOPAT – WACC% * (TC)


The steps appear straightforward and simple, but looks can be deceiving. For starters, NOPAT hardly represents a reliable indicator of shareholder wealth. NOPAT might show profitability according to the generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), but standard accounting profits rarely reflect the amount of cash left at year end for shareholders. According to Stern Stewart, literally dozens of adjustments to earnings and balance sheets - in areas like R&D, inventory, costing, depreciation and amortization of goodwill - must be made before the calculation of standard accounting profit can be used to calculate EVA.

Figuring out the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is even more tricky. WACC is a complex function of the capital structure (proportion of debt and equity on the balance sheet), the stock's volatility measured by its WACC) is even more thorny. WACC is a complex function of the capital structure (proportion of debt and equity on the balance sheet), the stock's volatility measured by its WACC) is even more thorny. WACC is a complex function of the capital structure (proportion of debt and equity on the balance sheet), the stock's volatility measured by its beta, and the market risk premium. Small changes in these inputs can result in big changes in the final WACC calculation.

That said, if carried out consistently, EVA should help us identify the best investments, that is, the companies that generate more wealth than their rivals. All other things being equal, firms with high EVAs should over time outperform others with lower or negative EVAs.

But the actual EVA level matters less than the change in the level. According to research conducted by Stern Stewart, EVA is a critical driver of a company's stock performance. If EVA is positive but is expected to become less positive, it is not giving a very good signal. Conversely, if a company suffers negative EVA but is expected to rise into a positive territory, a good buying signal is given.

Of course, Stern Stewart is hardly unbiased in its assessment. New research challenges the close relationship between rising EVA and stock price performance. Still, the growing popularity of the concept reflects the importance of EVA's basic principle: the cost of capital should not be ignored but kept at the forefront of investors' minds. Best of all, EVA gives analysts and anyone else the chance to look skeptically at EPS reports and forecasts.

Usage of the EVA method

EVA can be used for the following purposes:

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setting organizational goals
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performance measurement
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determining bonuses
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communication with shareholders and investors
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motivation of managers
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capital budgeting
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corporate valuation
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analyzing equity securities

India's New Government gazing on reforms

The latest guessing game seems to be: Will the new government push ahead with economic reforms? Which sectors will witness reforms and to what extent?

We believe the discussion has merit as there are positive indications from Dr. Manmohan Singh himself, who has made it clear that reforms would continue.

The power sector is likely to be among the first sectors to press on with reforms. As per Business Standard, officials in the power ministry are already working on reviving the IPO of the National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC), which was put on the back burner last September. In fact, follow on offerings are likely in Power Finance Corporation (PFC) and PowerGrid Corporation.

As per the Wall Street Journal, industry body FICCI believes pensions and insurance reforms will be on top of the agenda. The key issue in pension reforms is giving more authority to the pension regulator, which will lay down the groundwork for increased participation from fund managers. The key issue in insurance reforms is allowing foreign insurance companies to increase their stake up to 49% from the current 26%. FICCI also believes that private-sector participation in defense work will also be made easier.

As far as the downstream segment of the Oil & Gas industry is concerned, we believe that the decontrol of fuel prices will not happen any time soon. Given the emphasis that the UPA puts on the common man, the government will think several times before ushering in market determined fuel prices at a time when food prices inflation continues to be high.

Greatest Lessons from THE GURU Warren E. Buffett

Lessons from Warren Buffett- 1

For the practitioners of value investing, the one name that probably comes above all else is 'Warren E Buffett', the legendary value investor who arguably played the biggest part in executing the teachings of masters like Graham and Philip Fisher in the real world and making an extraordinary success story out of it. While it is true that he has learnt a lot from the master we have just mentioned, his own larder of investment wisdom is anything but empty. And fortunately for us, over the past many years he has been dishing it out in the form of letters that he religiously writes to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway year after year. Many people reckon that careful analyses of these letters itself can make people a lot better investors and are believed to be one of the best sources of investment wisdom.
Hence, starting from today, we will make an attempt to highlight and explain certain key points with respect to investing in each of his letters and in the process try and become a better investor. Laid out below are few points from the master's 1977 letter to shareholders:
"Most companies define "record" earnings as a new high in earnings per share. Since businesses customarily add from year to year to their equity base, we find nothing particularly noteworthy in a management performance combining, say, a 10% increase in equity capital and a 5% increase in earnings per share. After all, even a totally dormant savings account will produce steadily rising interest earnings each year because of compounding. Except for special cases (for example, companies with unusual debt-equity ratios or those with important assets carried at unrealistic balance sheet values), we believe a more appropriate measure of managerial economic performance to be return on equity capital."
What Buffett intends to say here is the fact that while investors are enamored with a company that is growing its earnings at a robust pace, he is not a big fan of the management if the growth in earnings is a result of even faster growth in capital that the business has employed. In other words, the management is not doing a good job or the fundamentals of the business are not good enough if there is an improving earnings profile but a deteriorating ROE. This could happen due to rising competition eroding the margins of the company or could also be a result of some technology that is getting obsolete so fast that the management is forced to replace fixed assets, which needless to say, requires capital investments.
"It is comforting to be in a business where some mistakes can be made and yet a quite satisfactory overall performance can be achieved. In a sense, this is the opposite case from our textile business where even very good management probably can average only modest results. One of the lessons your management has learned - and, unfortunately, sometimes re-learned - is the importance of being in businesses where tailwinds prevail rather than headwinds."
The above quote is a consequence of repeated failures by Buffett to try and successfully turnaround an ailing business of textiles called the Berkshire Hathaway, which eventually went on to become the holding company and has now acquired a great reputation. Indeed, no matter how good the management, if the fundamentals of the business are not good enough or in other words headwinds are blowing in the industry, then the business eventually fails or turns out to be a moderate performer. On the other hand, even a mediocre management can shepherd a business to high levels of profitability if the tailwinds are blowing in its favour.
If one were to apply the above principles in the Indian context, then the two contrasting industries that immediately come to mind are cement and the IT and the pharma sector. Despite being stalwarts in the industry, companies like ACC and Grasim, failed to grow at an extremely robust pace during the downturn that the industry faced between FY01 and FY05. But now, almost the same management are laughing all the way to the banks, thanks to a much improved pricing scenario. Infact, even small companies in the sector have become extremely profitable. On the other hand, such was the demand for low cost skilled labor, that many success stories have been spawned in the IT and the pharma sector, despite the fact that a lot of companies had management with little experience to run the business.
It is thus amazing, that although the letter has been written way back in 1977, the principles have stood the test of times and are still applicable in today's environment.
We will come out with more investing wisdom in the next chapter.

Lessons from Warren Buffett – 2

Before we had started a series on the study of annual letters that legendary investor Warren Buffett wrote every year to the shareholders of his investment vehicle, Berkshire Hathaway. We discussed some key points in the letter for the year 1977 in the previous write up. In this write up, let us see what the master has to say to his shareholders in the 1978 letter:
"The textile industry illustrates in textbook style how producers of relatively undifferentiated goods in capital intensive businesses must earn inadequate returns except under conditions of tight supply or real shortage. As long as excess productive capacity exists, prices tend to reflect direct operating costs rather than capital employed. Such a supply-excess condition appears likely to prevail most of the time in the textile industry, and our expectations are for profits of relatively modest amounts in relation to capital. We hope we don't get into too many more businesses with such tough economic characteristics."
The above paragraph once again highlights the fact that no matter how good the management, if the economic characteristic of the business is tough, then the business will continue to earn inadequate returns on capital. This can be further gauged from the fact that despite all the capital allocation skills at his disposal, the master was not able to turnaround the ailing textile business that he had acquired in the early years of his investing career. He further adds that such businesses have little product differentiation and in cases where the supply exceeds production, producers are content recovering their operating costs rather than capital employed.
While the comment is reserved for the textile industry, we believe it can be extended to all commodities like cement, steel and sugar. Infact, the current downturn the sugar industry is facing has a lot to do with supply far exceeding demand and this in turn is having a great impact on returns on capital employed by these businesses. The only hope for them is a scenario where demand will exceed supply.
"We get excited enough to commit a big percentage of insurance company net worth to equities only when we find (1) businesses we can understand, (2) with favorable long-term prospects, (3) operated by honest and competent people, and (4) priced very attractively. We usually can identify a small number of potential investments meeting requirements (1), (2) and (3), but (4) often prevents action. For example, in 1971 our total common stock position at Berkshire's insurance subsidiaries amounted to only US$ 10.7 m at cost and US$ 11.7 m at market. There were equities of identifiably excellent companies available - but very few at interesting prices."
Those of you, who are regular readers of content on our website, the above paragraph must have rang a bell or two. Indeed, time and again, in countless articles, we have been highlighting the importance of investing in good quality businesses run by honest and ethical management. That the master himself has been looking at similar qualities does go a long way in further reinforcing our beliefs. Buffett then goes on to make a very important comment on valuations and says that no matter how good the businesses are, there is a price to pay for it and he in his investing career has let many investing opportunities pass by because the valuations were just not right enough.
Comparison can be drawn to the tech mania in India in the late nineties when good companies with excellent management like Infosys and Wipro were available at astronomical valuations. While these companies had excellent growth prospects, investors had become far too optimistic and had bid them too high. Thus, investors who would have bought into these stocks at those levels would have had to wait for five long years just to break even! Hence, no matter how good the stock is, please ensure that you do not pay too high a price for it.



Lessons from Warren Buffett – 3


Last week, we discussed how Warren Buffett in his 1978 letter to his shareholders places a great deal of importance on the quality of business and also the fact that he had to let go of many attractive investment opportunities just because the price was not right. In the following write up, let us see what the master has to offer in terms of investment wisdom in his 1979 letter:
"The inflation rate plus the percentage of capital that must be paid by the owner to transfer into his own pocket the annual earnings achieved by the business (i.e., ordinary income tax on dividends and capital gains tax on retained earnings) - can be thought of as an "investor's misery index". When this index exceeds the rate of return earned on equity by the business, the investor's purchasing power (real capital) shrinks even though he consumes nothing at all. We have no corporate solution to this problem; high inflation rates will not help us earn higher rates of return on equity."
The above paragraph clearly demonstrates that in order to improve one's purchasing power, one will have to earn after tax returns that are higher than the inflation rate at all times. Imagine a scenario where the inflation rate touches 9%, which means that a commodity that you purchased at Rs 100 per unit last year will now cost you Rs 109. Further, assume that you put Rs 100 last year in a business that earns 10% return on equity and the tax rate that currently prevails is 20%.
Thus, while you earned Rs 10 by virtue of the 10% return on equity, the tax rate ensured that only Rs 8 has flown to your pocket. Not a good situation since your purchasing power has diminished as while your returns were only 8% post tax, you will have to shell out Re 1 extra for buying the commodity as inflation has remained higher than the after tax returns that you have earned. Further, high inflation does not help the business too unless it has some inherent competitive advantages, which enables it to pass on the hike in inflation to the end consumers. Little wonder, investors lay such high emphasis on businesses that earn returns way above inflation so that the purchasing power is enhanced rather than diminished.
"Both our operating and investment experience cause us to conclude that "turnarounds" seldom turn, and that the same energies and talent are much better employed in a good business purchased at a fair price than in a poor business purchased at a bargain price."
In the above paragraph, the master once again extols the virtues of a good quality business and says that he would rather pay a reasonable price for a good quality business than pay a bargain price for a poor business. It would be worthwhile to add that in the early part of his investing career, the master himself was a stock picker who used to rely only on quantitative cheapness rather than qualitative cheapness. However, somewhere down the line, he started gravitating towards good quality businesses and out of this thinking came such quality investments as 'Coca Cola' and 'American Express'. These were the companies that had virtually indestructible brands (a very good competitive advantage to have), generated superior returns on their capital and had ability to grow well into the future.
We prod you to find similar businesses in the Indian context, pick them up at a reasonable price and hold them for as long as you can. For if the master has made millions out of it, we don't see any reason as to why you can't.


Lessons from Warren Buffett – 4

Last week, we touched upon the key points in Warren Buffett's 1979 letter to his shareholders. This week, let us see what the master has to offer in his 1980 letter to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway:
"The value to Berkshire Hathaway of retained earnings is not determined by whether we own 100%, 50%, 20% or 1% of the businesses in which they reside. Rather, the value of those retained earnings is determined by the use to which they are put and the subsequent level of earnings produced by that usage."
The maestro made the above statements because in those days he felt that the prevailing accounting convention/standards were not in sync with a value based investment approach (Infact, they still aren't). In the paragraphs preceding the one mentioned above, he painstakingly explains that while accounting convention requires that a partial ownership (ownership of say 20%) in a business be reflected on the owner's books by way of dividend payments, in reality, they are worth much more to the owner and their true value is determined by the 20% of the intrinsic value of the company and not by 20% of the dividends that are reflected on its books. In the Indian context, imagine someone valuing a company like say M&M -if it had say a 20% stake in Tech Mahindra- based on the 20% of dividends that the latter pays out to M&M. This will be a rather incorrect way of valuing M&M, which in effect should be valued taking into account 20% of the intrinsic value of Tech Mahindra and not the dividends.
"The competitive nature of corporate acquisition activity almost guarantees the payment of a full - frequently more than full price when a company buys the entire ownership of another enterprise. But the auction nature of security markets often allows finely run companies the opportunity to purchase portions of their own businesses at a price under 50% of that needed to acquire the same earning power through the negotiated acquisition of another enterprise."
Buffett, as most of us might know, is a strong advocate of buyback, especially at a time when the stock is trading significantly lower than its intrinsic value and the above paragraph is just a testimony to this principle of his. Indeed, when stock prices are low, what better way to utilize capital than to enhance ownership in the company by way of buy back. The master further goes on to add that one can buy a portion of a business at a much lower price, provided there is auction happening. In other words, when there is a panic in the market and everyone is offloading shares, the chances of getting an attractive price is much higher. On the other hand, when there is a competition between two or more companies for buying another enterprise, the competitive forces will more likely than not keep the acquisition price higher, in most cases, higher than even the intrinsic value of the company.




Lessons from Warren Buffett – 5.

Before, we got to know the master's views on non-controlled ownership earnings and corporate acquisitions through his 1980 letter to shareholders. In the following write-up, let us see what he had to offer in his 1981 letter.
"Our acquisition decisions will be aimed at maximizing real economic benefits, not at maximizing either managerial domain or reported numbers for accounting purposes. (In the long run, managements stressing accounting appearance over economic substance usually achieve little of either.)
Regardless of the impact upon immediately reportable earnings, we would rather buy 10% of Wonderful Business T at X per share than 100% of T at 2X per share. Most corporate managers prefer just the reverse, and have no shortage of stated rationales for their behavior."
By making the above statements, Buffett is trying to highlight the difference between acquisition rationale for Berkshire Hathaway and most of the other corporate managers. While for the latter group of people, the motivation behind high premium acquisitions could range from reasons like penchant for adventure, misplaced compensations and a fair degree of overconfidence in their managerial skills, for Berkshire Hathaway, the maximization of real economic benefits is the sole aim behind acquisitions.
Infact, the company is even happy to deploy large sums where there is a high probability of long-term economic benefits but an absence of ownership control. In other words, the company is comfortable both with total ownership of businesses and with marketable securities representing small ownership of businesses.
The paragraphs that follow bring to the fore some of the biggest qualities of the man and what makes him an extraordinary investor. Warren Buffett has a knack of knowing his circle of competence better than most and also a rather unmatched ability to learn from past mistakes. These could be gauged from the following comment:
"We have tried occasionally to buy toads at bargain prices with results that have been chronicled in past reports. Clearly our kisses fell flat. We have done well with a couple of princes - but they were princes when purchased. At least our kisses didn't turn them into toads. And, finally, we have occasionally been quite successful in purchasing fractional interests in easily-identifiable princes at toad-like prices."
In the above paragraph, the master uses a childhood analogy and likens managers to princesses who kiss toads (ordinary businesses) to convert them into princes (attractive businesses). Put differently, there are certain managers who believe that their managerial kiss will do wonders for the profitability of a company and convert them from toads to princes. While the master has gone on to add that there are indeed certain managers that can achieve this feat, his own track record is nothing to write home about and hence, he would rather prefer buying 'easily-identifiable princes at toad-like prices'.
Although the opportunities for finding these types of companies are very rare, the master is willing to commit a large sum once such opportunities surface. According to him, such businesses must have two favored characteristics:
1. An ability to increase prices rather easily (even when product demand is flat and capacity is not fully utilized) without fear of significant loss of either market share or unit volume, and
2. An ability to accommodate large dollar volume increases in business (often produced more by inflation than by real growth) with only minor additional investment of capital.
Indeed, an ability to preserve margins and generate attractive return on capital year after year are the qualities that one should seek in a firm that one wants to invest in.


Lessons from Warren Buffett – 6

While the world of stocks seems to be tearing apart on US sub prime woes, what could be better than to indulge in some thought provoking lessons that can help you, as an investor, in staying calm in such situations of panic. In a previous write-up, we saw Buffett (the 'master') talk about his policies for making acquisitions and how managers tend to overestimate themselves. In this write-up let us see what the investing genius had to offer in his 1982 letter to shareholders.
In what was probably a bull market, Berkshire Hathaway, the master's investment vehicle faced a peculiar problem. By that time, the company had acquired meaningful stakes in a lot of other companies but not meaningful enough for these companies' earnings to be consolidated with that of Berkshire Hathaway's. This is because accounting conventions then allowed only for dividends to be recorded in the earnings statement of the acquiring company if it acquired a stake of less than 20%. This obviously did not go down well with the master as earnings of Berkshire in the 'accounting sense' depended upon the percentage of earnings that were distributed by these companies as dividends.
"We prefer a concept of 'economic' earnings that includes all undistributed earnings, regardless of ownership percentage. In our view, the value to all owners of the retained earnings of a business enterprise is determined by the effectiveness with which those earnings are used - and not by the size of one's ownership percentage."
As for some examples in the Indian context, companies like M&M and Tata Chemicals, which hold small stakes in many companies should not be valued based on what dividends these companies pay to M&M and Tata Chemicals but instead one should arrive at the fair value of these companies independently and that value should be attributed on a pro-rata basis to all the shareholders, whether minority or majority.
While the master tackled accounting related issues in the first few portions of the 1982 letter, the next few portions were once again devoted to the excesses that take place in the market time and again. This is what he had to say on corporate acquisitions and price discipline.
"As we look at the major acquisitions that others made during 1982, our reaction is not envy, but relief that we were non-participants. For in many of these acquisitions, managerial intellect wilted in competition with managerial adrenaline. The thrill of the chase blinded the pursuers to the consequences of the catch. Pascal's observation seems apt: 'It has struck me that all men's misfortunes spring from the single cause that they are unable to stay quietly in one room.'"
He further goes on to state, "The market, like the Lord, helps those who help themselves. But, unlike the Lord, the market does not forgive those who know not what they do. For the investor, a too-high purchase price for the stock of an excellent company can undo the effects of a subsequent decade of favorable business developments."
The above comments once again bring to the fore a strict discipline that the master employs when it comes to paying an appropriate price. Infact, as much as his success is built on finding some very good picks like Coca Cola and Gillette, he has never had to sustain huge losses on any of his investment. The math is simple, if you lose say 50% on an investment, to make good these losses, one will have to unearth a stock that will have to rise atleast 100% and that too in quick time. A very difficult task indeed! No wonder the master pays so much attention to maintaining a strict price discipline.

Lessons from Warren Buffett – 7

While corporate excesses and the concept of economic earnings, different from accounting earnings remained the focal points in the master's 1982 letter to shareholders, let us see what he has to offer in his 1983 letter.
In this another enlightening letter, Warren Buffett, probably for the first time discussed at length the concept of 'goodwill' and believed it to be of great importance in understanding businesses. Further, he blames the discrepancies between the 'actual intrinsic value' and the 'accounting book value' of Berkshire Hathaway to have arisen because of the concept of 'goodwill'. This is what he has to say on the subject.
"You can live a full and rewarding life without ever thinking about goodwill and its amortization. But students of investment and management should understand the nuances of the subject. My own thinking has changed drastically from 35 years ago when I was taught to favor tangible assets and to shun businesses whose value depended largely upon economic goodwill. This bias caused me to make many important business mistakes of omission, although relatively few of commission."
From the above quote, it is clear that the master's investment philosophy had undergone a sea change from when he first started investing. Further, with his company becoming too big, he could no longer afford to churn his portfolio as frequently as before. In other words, he wanted businesses where he could invest for the long haul and what better investments here than companies, where the economic goodwill is huge. The master had been kind enough in explaining this concept at length through an appendix laid out at the end of the letter. Since we feel that we couldn't have explained it better than the master himself, we have reproduced the relevant extracts below verbatim.
"True economic goodwill tends to rise in nominal value proportionally with inflation. To illustrate how this works, let's contrast a See's kind of business with a more mundane business. When we purchased See's in 1972, it will be recalled, it was earning about US$ 2 m on US$ 8 m of net tangible assets (book value). Let us assume that our hypothetical mundane business then had US$ 2 m of earnings also, but needed US$ 18 m in net tangible assets for normal operations. Earning only 11% on required tangible assets, that mundane business would possess little or no economic goodwill.
A business like that, therefore, might well have sold for the value of its net tangible assets, or for US$ 18 m. In contrast, we paid US$ 25 m for See's, even though it had no more in earnings and less than half as much in "honest-to-God" assets. Could less really have been more, as our purchase price implied? The answer is "yes" - even if both businesses were expected to have flat unit volume - as long as you anticipated, as we did in 1972, a world of continuous inflation.
To understand why, imagine the effect that a doubling of the price level would subsequently have on the two businesses. Both would need to double their nominal earnings to $4 million to keep themselves even with inflation. This would seem to be no great trick: just sell the same number of units at double earlier prices and, assuming profit margins remain unchanged, profits also must double.
But, crucially, to bring that about, both businesses probably would have to double their nominal investment in net tangible assets, since that is the kind of economic requirement that inflation usually imposes on businesses, both good and bad. A doubling of dollar sales means correspondingly more dollars must be employed immediately in receivables and inventories. Dollars employed in fixed assets will respond more slowly to inflation, but probably just as surely. And all of this inflation-required investment will produce no improvement in rate of return. The motivation for this investment is the survival of the business, not the prosperity of the owner.
Remember, however, that See's had net tangible assets of only $8 million. So it would only have had to commit an additional $8 million to finance the capital needs imposed by inflation. The mundane business, meanwhile, had a burden over twice as large - a need for $18 million of additional capital.
After the dust had settled, the mundane business, now earning $4 m annually, might still be worth the value of its tangible assets, or US $36 m. That means its owners would have gained only a dollar of nominal value for every new dollar invested. (This is the same dollar-for-dollar result they would have achieved if they had added money to a savings account.)
See's, however, also earning US$ 4 m, might be worth US$ 50 m if valued (as it logically would be) on the same basis as it was at the time of our purchase. So it would have gained US$ 25 m in nominal value while the owners were putting up only US$ 8 m in additional capital - over US$ 3 of nominal value gained for each US$ 1 invested.
Remember, even so, that the owners of the See's kind of business were forced by inflation to ante up US$ 8 m in additional capital just to stay even in real profits. Any unleveraged business that requires some net tangible assets to operate (and almost all do) is hurt by inflation. Businesses needing little in the way of tangible assets simply are hurt the least.
And that fact, of course, has been hard for many people to grasp. For years the traditional wisdom - long on tradition, short on wisdom - held that inflation protection was best provided by businesses laden with natural resources, plants and machinery, or other tangible assets. It doesn't work that way. Asset-heavy businesses generally earn low rates of return - rates that often barely provide enough capital to fund the inflationary needs of the existing business, with nothing left over for real growth, for distribution to owners, or for acquisition of new businesses.
In contrast, a disproportionate number of the great business fortunes built up during the inflationary years arose from ownership of operations that combined intangibles of lasting value with relatively minor requirements for tangible assets. In such cases earnings have bounded upward in nominal dollars, and these dollars have been largely available for the acquisition of additional businesses. This phenomenon has been particularly evident in the communications business. That business has required little in the way of tangible investment - yet its franchises have endured. During inflation, goodwill is the gift that keeps giving.
But that statement applies, naturally, only to true economic goodwill. Spurious accounting goodwill - and there is plenty of it around - is another matter. When an overexcited management purchases a business at a silly price, the same accounting niceties described earlier are observed. Because it can't go anywhere else, the silliness ends up in the goodwill account. Considering the lack of managerial discipline that created the account, under such circumstances it might better be labeled 'No-Will'. Whatever the term, the 40-year ritual typically is observed and the adrenalin so capitalized remains on the books as an 'asset' just as if the acquisition had been a sensible one."

Lessons from Warren Buffett – 8

Last week we saw Warren Buffett put forth his views on the concept of 'economic goodwill' and why he prefers companies that have a high amount of the same. Let us now see what the master has to offer in terms of investment wisdom in his 1984 letter to the shareholders.
While Buffett has devoted a lot of space in his 84' letter to discussing in detail, some of Berkshire's biggest investments in those times, but as usual, the letter is not short on some general investment related counsel either. In a rather simplistic way that only he can, the master gives his opinion on a couple of extremely important topics like 'investments in bonds' and 'corporate dividend policies'. On the former, he has to say the following:
"Our approach to bond investment - treating it as an unusual sort of "business" with special advantages and disadvantages - may strike you as a bit quirky. However, we believe that many staggering errors by investors could have been avoided if they had viewed bond investment with a businessman's perspective. For example, in 1946, 20-year AAA tax-exempt bonds traded at slightly below a 1% yield. In effect, the buyer of those bonds at that time bought a "business" that earned about 1% on "book value" (and that, moreover, could never earn a dime more than 1% on book), and paid 100 cents on the dollar for that abominable business."
Berkshire Hathaway in 1984 had purchased huge quantities of bonds in a troubled company, where the yields had gone upto as much as 16%. While usually not a huge fan of long term bond investments, the master chose to invest in the troubled company because he felt that the risk was rather limited and not many businesses during those times gave as much return on the invested capital. Thus, despite the rather limited upside potential, he went ahead with his bond investments. This is further made clear in his following comment:
"This ceiling on upside potential is an important minus. It should be realized, however, that the great majority of operating businesses have a limited upside potential also unless more capital is continuously invested in them. That is so because most businesses are unable to significantly improve their average returns on equity - even under inflationary conditions, though these were once thought to automatically raise returns."
Years and years of studying companies had led the master to conclude that there are very few companies on the face of this earth that are able to continuously earn above average returns without consuming too much of capital. Indeed, such brutal are the competitive forces that sooner or later and in this case, more sooner than later that returns for majority of the companies tend to gravitate towards their cost of capital. If we do a similar study on our Sensex, we will too come to the conclusion that there are not many companies that were a part of the index 15 years back and are still a part of the same index. Hence, while valuing companies, having a fair judgment of when the competitive position of the company, the one that enables it to consistently earn above average returns is likely to deteriorate. This will help you to avoid paying too much for the company's future growth.
After touching upon the topic of bond investments, the master then gives his take on dividends and this is what he has to say:
"The first point to understand is that all earnings are not created equal. In many businesses particularly those that have high asset/profit ratios - inflation causes some or all of the reported earnings to become ersatz. The ersatz portion - let's call these earnings "restricted" - cannot, if the business is to retain its economic position, be distributed as dividends. Were these earnings to be paid out, the business would lose ground in one or more of the following areas: its ability to maintain its unit volume of sales, its long-term competitive position, its financial strength. No matter how conservative its payout ratio, a company that consistently distributes restricted earnings is destined for oblivion unless equity capital is otherwise infused."
While the master is definitely in favour of dividend payments, he is also aware of the fact that not all companies have similar capital needs in order to maintain their ongoing level of operations. Hence, in cases where businesses have high capital needs, a high payout ratio is likely to result in deterioration of the business or sooner or later will require additional capital to be infused. On the other hand, companies that have limited capital needs should distribute the remaining earnings as dividends and not pursue investments which drive down the overall returns of the underlying business. In a nutshell, capital should go where it can be put to earn maximum rate of return.
He then goes on to add how his own textile company, Berkshire Hathaway, had huge ongoing capital needs and hence was unable to pay dividends. He also further adds that had Berkshire Hathaway distributed all its earnings as dividends, the master would have left with no capital at all to be put into his other high return yielding investments. Thus, by not letting the operational performance of the company deteriorate by retaining earnings and not distributing it as dividends, he was able to avoid a situation in the future where he would have had too put in his own capital in the business.

Lessons from Warren Buffett: 9

With volatility being the order of the day, we as investors indeed need some calming influence so as to help us stay rational and make sense of the crisis that has gripped the global capital markets currently. And what better way to do this than to turn to the man who answers to the name of Warren Buffett and who arguably, is one of the world's best practitioner of the art of rationality and objective thinking.
Few weeks back, we had embarked upon a series of write-ups based on the investment wisdom contained in the master's yearly letters to the shareholders of his investment vehicle, Berkshire Hathaway. So far, we have covered letters upto the year 1984. In the following few paragraphs, let us see what the master offers by way of investment wisdom in his 1985 letter.
This letter like his previous letters touches upon a variety of topics, some covered before while others brand new. What we would like to reproduce here is the biggest and the best of them all. The year 1985 was the year when the master finally chose to shut down his textile business by liquidating all of company's assets. While going through the brief history of the business and explaining his rationale behind the sale, the master has systemically busted some of the biggest myths related to investing and shown us why one should prefer business that generate returns with as little capital employed as possible. He has also shown why reliance on book values and replacement costs while valuing a company could turn to be dangerous.
While the discourse is indeed exhaustive, we believe that every sentence is worth its weight in gold. Laid out below is an edited account of his textile business shutdown:
"In July we decided to close our textile operation, and by year end this unpleasant job was largely completed. The history of this business is instructive.
When Buffett Partnership Ltd., an investment partnership of which I was general partner, bought control of Berkshire Hathaway 21 years ago, it had an accounting net worth of US$ 22 m, all devoted to the textile business. The company's intrinsic business value, however, was considerably less because the textile assets were unable to earn returns commensurate with their accounting value. Indeed, during the previous nine years (the period in which Berkshire and Hathaway operated as a merged company) aggregate sales of US$ 530 m had produced an aggregate loss of US$ 10 m. Profits had been reported from time to time but the net effect was always one step forward, two steps back.
We felt, however, that the business would be run much better by a long-time employee whom we immediately selected to be president, Ken Chace. In this respect we were 100% correct: Ken and his recent successor, Garry Morrison, have been excellent managers, every bit the equal of managers at our more profitable businesses.
We remained in the business for reasons that I stated in the 1978 annual report (and summarized at other times also): "(1) our textile businesses are very important employers in their communities, (2) management has been straightforward in reporting on problems and energetic in attacking them, (3) labor has been cooperative and understanding in facing our common problems, and (4) the business should generate modest cash returns relative to investment." I further said, "As long as these conditions prevail - and we expect that they will - we intend to continue to support our textile business despite more attractive alternative uses for capital."
It turned out that I was very wrong about (4). Though 1979 was moderately profitable, the business thereafter consumed major amounts of cash. By mid-1985 it became clear, even to me, that this condition was almost sure to continue. Could we have found a buyer who would continue operations, I would have certainly preferred to sell the business rather than liquidate it, even if that meant somewhat lower proceeds for us. But the economics that were finally obvious to me were also obvious to others, and interest was nil.
The domestic textile industry operates in a commodity business, competing in a world market in which substantial excess capacity exists. Much of the trouble we experienced was attributable, both directly and indirectly, to competition from foreign countries whose workers are paid a small fraction of the U.S. minimum wage.
Over the years, we had the option of making large capital expenditures in the textile operation that would have allowed us to somewhat reduce variable costs. Each proposal to do so looked like an immediate winner. Measured by standard return-on-investment tests, in fact, these proposals usually promised greater economic benefits than would have resulted from comparable expenditures in our highly-profitable candy and newspaper businesses.
But the promised benefits from these textile investments were illusory. Many of our competitors, both domestic and foreign, were stepping up to the same kind of expenditures and, once enough companies did so, their reduced costs became the baseline for reduced prices industry wide. Viewed individually, each company's capital investment decision appeared cost-effective and rational; viewed collectively, the decisions neutralized each other and were irrational (just as happens when each person watching a parade decides he can see a little better if he stands on tiptoes). After each round of investment, all the players had more money in the game and returns remained anemic.
Thus, we faced a miserable choice: huge capital investment would have helped to keep our textile business alive, but would have left us with terrible returns on ever-growing amounts of capital. After the investment, moreover, the foreign competition would still have retained a major, continuing advantage in labor costs. A refusal to invest, however, would make us increasingly non-competitive, even measured against domestic textile manufacturers.
My conclusion from my own experiences and from much observation of other businesses is that a good managerial record (measured by economic returns) is far more a function of what business boat you get into than it is of how effectively you row (though intelligence and effort help considerably, of course, in any business, good or bad). Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks.
There is an investment postscript in our textile saga. Some investors weight book value heavily in their stock-buying decisions (as I, in my early years, did myself). And some economists and academicians believe replacement values are of considerable importance in calculating an appropriate price level for the stock market as a whole. Those of both persuasions would have received an education at the auction we held in early 1986 to dispose of our textile machinery.
The equipment sold (including some disposed of in the few months prior to the auction) took up about 750,000 square feet of factory space in New Bedford and was eminently usable. It originally cost us about US$ 13 m, including US$ 2 m spent in 1980-84, and had a current book value of US$ 866,000 (after accelerated depreciation). Though no sane management would have made the investment, the equipment could have been replaced new for perhaps US$30 to US$ 50 m.
Gross proceeds from our sale of this equipment came to US$ 163,122. Allowing for necessary pre- and post-sale costs, our net was less than zero. Relatively modern looms that we bought for US$ 5,000 apiece in 1981 found no takers at US$ 50. We finally sold them for scrap at US$ 26 each, a sum less than removal costs."
Conclusion: The master's liquidation of his textile business shows what could potentially lie in store for a business with a rather poor economics, despite the presence of an excellent management. Thus, while Buffett was able to correct his mistake by devoting some of the textile company's capital to other more profitable businesses, no such luxuries await small investors. Hence, they can do their investment returns a world of good by refusing to invest in such businesses, no matter how cheap they might look based on book value and replacement costs.

Lessons from Warren Buffett – 10
Last week, through Warren Buffett's 1985 letter to shareholders, we got to know the master's views on his textile business. Let us go a year further and try to discuss what the guru has to say in his 1986 letter to shareholders.
The letter, as usual, though did contain quite a bit of commentary on the company's major businesses, it also had general investment related wisdom. This time around the master chose to speak on himself and his partner's role. This is what he had to say:
"Charlie Munger, our Vice Chairman, and I really have only two jobs. One is to attract and keep outstanding managers to run our various operations. This hasn't been all that difficult. Usually the managers came with the companies we bought, having demonstrated their talents throughout careers that spanned a wide variety of business circumstances. They were managerial stars long before they knew us, and our main contribution has been to not get in their way. This approach seems elementary - if my job were to manage a golf team - and if Jack Nicklaus or Arnold Palmer were willing to play for me - neither would get a lot of directives from me about how to swing."
"The second job Charlie and I must handle is the allocation of capital, which at Berkshire is a considerably more important challenge than at most companies. Three factors make that so - we earn more money than average; we retain all that we earn; and, we are fortunate to have operations that, for the most part, require little incremental capital to remain competitive and to grow. Obviously, the future results of a business earning 23% annually and retaining it all are far more affected by today's capital allocations than are the results of a business earning 10% and distributing half of that to shareholders. If our retained earnings - and those of our major investees, GEICO and Capital Cities/ABC Inc. - are employed in an unproductive manner, the economics of Berkshire will deteriorate very quickly. In a company adding only, say 5% to net worth annually, capital-allocation decisions, though still important, will change the company's economics far more slowly."
The master's non-interference in the management of the businesses he owned is now almost legendary. But just like the companies he invested in, he made sure that the people he put in charge had outstanding track records. Once that was done, he would completely move out of their way and let them manage the business. Indeed, when a business with favorable economics is run by an exceptional manager, the last thing one would want to do is upset the applecart. Yet again, while the line of thinking is simple yet extremely effective, it must have stemmed from the master's own experience of managing the operations of the textile business of Berkshire Hathaway. Having been at the wheels for years, he must have realized how difficult it is to successfully run a business and deliver knock out performances year after year.
Berkshire Hathaway, from the time Buffett has been at the helm, has never paid dividends to shareholders. This is because the master has always felt that he would be able to find a better use of capital than paying out dividends. And find he did! The returns that the company has generated for its shareholders have vastly exceeded returns by any other American company. A very difficult task indeed, especially over a very long period of time. He is also very right in saying that a company that earns above average returns and retains all earnings is likely to see its economics deteriorate much faster than a company retaining only 5% if the retained capital is not put to good use. In the end, the honours should definitely go to the company that makes the most effective use of capital.
The master rounded off the 1986 letter by introducing a concept of owner earnings, the one he frequently uses to evaluate companies. It is nothing but (a) reported earnings plus (b) depreciation, depletion, amortization, and certain other non-cash charges minus (c) the average annual amount of capitalized expenditures for plant and equipment that the business needs to fully maintain its long-term competitive position and current volumes.
While owner earnings looks similar to cash flow after capex and working capital needs, it does not take into account capex and working capital investment required for generating more volumes but instead takes into account capex that is required to maintain just the steady state operations. In other words, what we call as the maintenance capex. Since inflationary pressures can make maintenance capex look very large, analysts who do not consider it are bound to overestimate the worth of the company. In fact, this is what he has to say on those who do not consider the all-important (c) item in their evaluations.
"All of this points up the absurdity of the 'cash flow' numbers that are often set forth in Wall Street reports. These numbers routinely include (a) plus (b) - but do not subtract (c). Most sales brochures of investment bankers also feature deceptive presentations of this kind. These imply that the business being offered is the commercial counterpart of the Pyramids - forever state-of-the-art, never needing to be replaced, improved or refurbished. Indeed, if all US corporations were to be offered simultaneously for sale through our leading investment bankers - and if the sales brochures describing them were to be believed - governmental projections of national plant and equipment spending would have to be slashed by 90%."
Lessons from Warren Buffett – 11
Last week, we saw the master expand upon his concept of owner earnings and the only two basic jobs that he and his partner Charlie Munger engage in through his 1986 letter to his shareholders. This week, let us see what investment wisdom he brings to the table in his 1987 letter.
We are living in a fast changing world and every few years there comes a technology or a product that just brings about a revolution and spreads across the globe like a mania. Few examples that come to mind are the automobiles and aero planes in the US in the early 20th century or the recent Internet and dot-com mania. However, the fact that the companies in such revolutionary industries rake up equally impressive returns on the stock market is far from truth. While loss making abilities of the US auto companies and airliners are legendary, not less infamous either is the amount of wealth that has been destroyed in the Internet bubble at the cusp of the 21st century. No wonder this is what the master has to stay on which companies end up winners in the stock market.
"Experience indicates that the best business returns are usually achieved by companies that are doing something quite similar today to what they were doing five or ten years ago. That is no argument for managerial complacency. Businesses always have opportunities to improve service, product lines, manufacturing techniques, and the like, and obviously these opportunities should be seized. But a business that constantly encounters major change also encounters many chances for major error. Furthermore, economic terrain that is forever shifting violently is ground on which it is difficult to build a fortress-like business franchise. Such a franchise is usually the key to sustained high returns."
"Berkshire's experience has been similar. Our managers have produced extraordinary results by doing rather ordinary things - but doing them exceptionally well. Our managers protect their franchises, they control costs, they search for new products and markets that build on their existing strengths and they don't get diverted. They work exceptionally hard at the details of their businesses, and it shows."
Indeed, with technology changing so fast in industries such as auto and Internet, it becomes really difficult to zero in on a company that will continue to exist ten years from now and in the process still give attractive returns. This is definitely not the case with a single product company existing in an industry, where more the things change more they remain the same.
In an era when investing in equities had been reduced to nothing more than moving in and out of companies based on their quotations, the master was a breed different from the rest. He did not let fluctuations in stock prices influence his investment decisions but rather viewed investments from the point of view of a business analyst, judging companies on the basis of their operating results and viewing stock market not as a guide but as a servant. Laid out below is what perhaps is one of the most lucid yet one of the most effective explanations of how one should view the stock market.
The master says, "Ben Graham, my friend and teacher, long ago described the mental attitude toward market fluctuations that I believe to be most conducive to investment success. He said that you should imagine market quotations as coming from a remarkably accommodating fellow named Mr. Market who is your partner in a private business. Without fail, Mr. Market appears daily and names a price at which he will either buy your interest or sell you his.
Even though the business that the two of you own may have economic characteristics that are stable, Mr. Market's quotations will be anything but. For, sad to say, the poor fellow has incurable emotional problems. At times he feels euphoric and can see only the favorable factors affecting the business. When in that mood, he names a very high buy-sell price because he fears that you will snap up his interest and rob him of imminent gains. At other times he is depressed and can see nothing but trouble ahead for both the business and the world. On these occasions he will name a very low price, since he is terrified that you will unload your interest on him.
Mr. Market has another endearing characteristic - he doesn't mind being ignored. If his quotation is uninteresting to you today, he will be back with a new one tomorrow. Transactions are strictly at your option. Under these conditions, the more manic-depressive his behavior, the better for you.
But, like Cinderella at the ball, you must heed one warning or everything will turn into pumpkins and mice - Mr. Market is there to serve you, not to guide you. It is his pocketbook, not his wisdom that you will find useful. If he shows up some day in a particularly foolish mood, you are free to either ignore him or to take advantage of him, but it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence. Indeed, if you aren't certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr. Market, you don't belong in the game."

Lessons from Warren Buffett – 12

In our previous article on Warren Buffet's letter to shareholders, we discussed the master's 1987 letter and got to know his preference for businesses that are simple and easy to understand. In the same letter, Buffett also explained the concept of 'Mr Market' in a rather detailed way. Let us now see what the master has to offer in his 1988 letter to shareholders.
The year 1988 turned out to be quite an eventful one for Berkshire Hathaway, the master's investment vehicle. While the year saw the listing of the company on the New York Stock Exchange, it also turned out to be the year when Buffett made what can be termed as one of its best investments ever. Yes, we are talking about the company Coca Cola. The letter too was not short on investment wisdom either. Although he did discuss previously touched upon topics like accounting and management quality, these are not what we will focus on. Instead, let us see what the master has to say on some novel concepts like arbitrage and his take on the efficient market theory.
For those of you who would have thought that Warren Buffett is all about value investing and extremely lengthy time horizons, the mention of the word 'arbitrage' must have come as a pleasant surprise or may be, even as a shock. However, the master did engage in 'arbitrage' but in very small quantities and this is what he has to say on it.
"In past reports we have told you that our insurance subsidiaries sometimes engage in arbitrage as an alternative to holding short-term cash equivalents. We prefer, of course, to make major long-term commitments, but we often have more cash than good ideas. At such times, arbitrage sometimes promises much greater returns than Treasury Bills and, equally important, cools any temptation we may have to relax our standards for long-term investments."
First of all, let us see how does he define arbitrage.
"Since World War I the definition of arbitrage - or "risk arbitrage," as it is now sometimes called - has expanded to include the pursuit of profits from an announced corporate event such as sale of the company, merger, recapitalization, reorganization, liquidation, self-tender, etc. In most cases the arbitrageur expects to profit regardless of the behavior of the stock market. The major risk he usually faces instead is that the announced event won't happen."
Just as in his long-term investments, in arbitrage too, the master brings his legendary risk aversion technique to the fore and puts forth his criteria for evaluating arbitrage situations.
"To evaluate arbitrage situations you must answer four questions: (1) How likely is it that the promised event will indeed occur? (2) How long will your money be tied up? (3) What chance is there that something still better will transpire - a competing takeover bid, for example? and (4) What will happen if the event does not take place because of anti-trust action, financing glitches, etc.?"
And how exactly does he differ from other arbitrageurs? Let us hear the answer in his own words.
"Because we diversify so little, one particularly profitable or unprofitable transaction will affect our yearly result from arbitrage far more than it will the typical arbitrage operation. So far, Berkshire has not had a really bad experience. But we will - and when it happens we'll report the gory details to you."
"The other way we differ from some arbitrage operations is that we participate only in transactions that have been publicly announced. We do not trade on rumors or try to guess takeover candidates. We just read the newspapers, think about a few of the big propositions, and go by our own sense of probabilities."
Another important topic that the master touched upon in his 1988 letter was that of the Efficient Market Theory (EMT). This theory had become something like a cult in the financial academic circles in the 1970s and to put it simply, stated that stock analysis is an exercise in futility since the prices reflected virtually all the public information and hence, it was impossible to beat the market on a regular basis. However, this is what the master had to say on the investment professionals and academics who followed the theory to the 'Tee'.
"Observing correctly that the market was frequently efficient, they went on to conclude incorrectly that it was always efficient. The difference between these propositions is night and day."
In order to justify his stance, the master states that if beating markets would have been impossible, then he and his mentor, Benjamin Graham, would not have notched up returns in the region of 20% year after year for an incredibly long stretch of 63 years, when the market returns during the same period were just under 10% including dividends. Hence, despite evidences to the contrary, EMT continued to remain popular and forced the master to make the following comment.
"Over the 63 years, the general market delivered just under a 10% annual return, including dividends. That means US$ 1,000 would have grown to US$ 405,000 if all income had been reinvested. A 20% rate of return, however, would have produced US$ 97 m. That strikes us as a statistically significant differential that might, conceivably, arouse one's curiosity. Yet proponents of the theory have never seemed interested in discordant evidence of this type. True, they don't talk quite as much about their theory today as they used to. But no one, to my knowledge, has ever said he was wrong, no matter how many thousands of students he has sent forth mis instructed. EMT, moreover, continues to be an integral part of the investment curriculum at major business schools. Apparently, a reluctance to recant, and thereby to demystify the priesthood, is not limited to theologians."


Lessons from Warren Buffett – 13

In the previous article of this series, we saw Warren Buffett make some significant dents in the efficient market theory and also got to know his take on arbitrage. Let us see what the master has to say in his 1989 letter to shareholders.
Have you ever wondered why despite such enormous wealth and infrastructure, the US economy canters at a mere 3%-4% growth rate per annum and why a country like India, which has very little infrastructure in comparison to the US, is galloping at 7%-8% rate. Or better still, what happened to the 40%-50% growth rates that the Indian IT companies notched up so successfully in the not so recent past? The master has the following explanation to these phenomena:
"In a finite world, high growth rates must self-destruct. If the base from which the growth is taking place is tiny, this law may not operate for a time. But when the base balloons, the party ends: A high growth rate eventually forges its own anchor."
Indeed, in a world where resources are limited, consistently high growth rates would create pressure on those resources, thus resulting into either exhaustion of the resources or slowing down of growth. To better illustrate this point, let us return to the Indian IT industry. The demand for qualified IT professionals (a limited resource as we can produce only so much per year) has been so high in recent times that this has resulted in a disproportionate rise in salaries and attrition levels, thus impeding profit growth. Further, it is much easy to double revenues on a base of Rs. 500 - Rs. 600 m than on a base of Rs. 50,000 m - Rs 60,000 m. Hence, those who are expecting these companies to grow at the same rate as in the past, might be in for some real surprise.
Another important topic that the master has touched upon in his 1989 letter is the gradual deterioration in the quality of representation of a company's true cash flow by certain promoters and their advisors in order to justify a shaky deal. While earlier, a company's cash flow, to justify its debt carrying capacity took into account its normal capex needs and modest reduction in debt per year, things had come to such a pass that EBITDA emerged as a substitute for a company's cash flow. Important to note that EBITDA not only excludes the normal capex needs of the company, but it was deemed enough to cover just the interest expense on debt and not the repayment of debt. This is what the master had to say on such practices:
"To induce lenders to finance even sillier transactions, they introduced an abomination, EBDIT - Earnings Before Depreciation, Interest and Taxes - as the test of a company's ability to pay interest. Using this sawed-off yardstick, the borrower ignored depreciation as an expense on the theory that it did not require a current cash outlay. Capital outlays at a business can be skipped, of course, in any given month, just as a human can skip a day or even a week of eating. But if the skipping becomes routine and is not made up, the body weakens and eventually dies. Furthermore, a start-and-stop feeding policy will over time produce a less healthy organism, human or corporate, than that produced by a steady diet. As businessmen, Charlie and I relish having competitors who are unable to fund capital expenditures."
Thus, since EBITDA does not even cover the normal capex needs of the company, the master advises investors to be wary of companies and investment bankers who rely on these yardsticks to justify a leveraged deal. The master also touches upon a special type of bond known as the zero coupon bonds and goes on to add that whenever the inherent advantage that these bonds offer (deferring interest payment and not recording them till the maturity of bonds) combine with lax standards for cash flow estimation like the EBITDA, it sure is a recipe for disaster. This is what he has to say on the combination of both:
"Whenever an investment banker starts talking about EBDIT - or whenever someone creates a capital structure that does not allow all interest, both payable and accrued, to be comfortably met out of current cash flow net of ample capital expenditures - zip up your wallet. Turn the tables by suggesting that the promoter and his high-priced entourage accept zero-coupon fees, deferring their take until the zero-coupon bonds have been paid in full. See then how much enthusiasm for the deal endures."

Lessons from Warren Buffett – 14

In the previous article in the series, we discussed the master's 1989 letter and got to know his views on growth rates in a finite world and the mischief being played by investment bankers and promoters in order to justify a rather 'difficult to service' fund raising.
As the years have gone by, we have noticed that the master's letters have become lengthier and have come packed with even more investment wisdom. This has however, made it difficult to incorporate all the wisdom from one particular year in a single article. Thus henceforth, in cases where we feel necessary, we might divide the letter from the same year into two or maybe even three different articles. The letter for the year 1989 is we feel, one of such letters and hence, the following few paragraphs contain some additional investment wisdom from the 1989 letter.
In a section titled 'Mistakes of the First Twenty-five Years', the master has reviewed some of the major investment related mistakes that he has made in the twenty-five years preceding the year 1989. Let us go through those and try our best to avoid them if similar situations play themselves out before us:
"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price. Charlie (Buffett's business partner) understood this early; I was a slow learner. But now, when buying companies or common stocks, we look for first-class businesses accompanied by first-class managements."
"Good jockeys will do well on good horses, but not on broken-down nags. The same managers employed in a business with good economic characteristics would have achieved fine records. But they were never going to make any progress while running in quicksand."
It should be worth pointing out that in the early years of his career, the master bought into businesses based on statistical cheapness rather than qualitative cheapness. While he experienced success using this approach, the difficult time faced by the textile business made him realize the virtue of a good business i.e. businesses with worthwhile returns and profit margins and run by exceptional people. According to him, while one may make decent profits in an ordinary business purchased at very low prices, lot of time may elapse before such profits can be made. Hence, he feels that it is always better to stick with wonderful company at a fair price, as according to him, time is the friend of a good business and an enemy of a bad business.
"Easy does it. After 25 years of buying and supervising a great variety of businesses, Charlie and I have not learned how to solve difficult business problems. What we have learned is to avoid them. To the extent we have been successful, it is because we concentrated on identifying one-foot hurdles that we could step over rather than because we acquired any ability to clear seven-footers."
The master's reluctance to invest in tech stocks during the tech boom is legendary and perfectly sums up what he intends to convey from the above paragraph. Invest in companies whose businesses are within your circle of competence and keep it easy and simple. According to him, human beings have this perverse tendency of making easy things difficult and one must not fall into such a trap.
The list of mistakes has a few more important points, which we would discuss in the next article in the series.


Lessons from Warren Buffett – 15

Before we saw the master mention about his investment mistakes of the preceding 25 years in his 1989 letter to shareholders. Let us round off that list by discussing the rest of what he feels were his key investment mistakes.
"My most surprising discovery: the overwhelming importance in business of an unseen force that we might call 'the institutional imperative'. In business school, I was given no hint of the imperative's existence and I did not intuitively understand it when I entered the business world. I thought then that decent, intelligent, and experienced managers would automatically make rational business decisions. But I learned over time that isn't so. Instead, rationality frequently wilts when the institutional imperative comes into play."
How often have we seen merger between two companies not producing the desired outcome as was projected at the time of the merger? Or, how often have we seen management retain excess cash under the rationale that it will be used for future acquisitions? Further still, a lot of companies do things just because their peers are doing it even though it might bring no tangible benefits to them. The master has labeled these so called propensities to do things just for the sake of doing them 'the institutional imperatives' and has termed them as one of his most surprising discoveries. Further, he advises investors to steer clear of such companies and instead focus on companies, which appear alert to the problem of 'institutional imperative'.
Given the master's great predisposition towards choosing business owners with the highest levels of integrity and honesty, it comes as no surprise that one of his investment mistake concerns the quality of the management. This is what he has to say on the issue.
"After some other mistakes, I learned to go into business only with people whom I like, trust, and admire. As I noted before, this policy in itself will not ensure success: A second-class textile or department store company won't prosper simply because its managers are men that you would be pleased to see your daughter marry. However, an owner - or investor - can accomplish wonders if he manages to associate himself with such people in businesses that possess decent economic characteristics. Conversely, we do not wish to join with managers who lack admirable qualities, no matter how attractive the prospects of their business. We've never succeeded in making a good deal with a bad person."
Next on the list of investment mistakes is a confession that makes us realise that even the master is human and is prone to slip up occasionally. But what makes him a truly outstanding investor is the fact that he has had relatively fewer mistakes of commission rather than omission. In other words, while he may have let go of a couple of very attractive investments, he's hardly ever made an investment that cost him huge amounts of money.
This is what he has to say: "Some of my worst mistakes were not publicly visible. These were stock and business purchases whose virtues I understood and yet didn't make. It's no sin to miss a great opportunity outside one's area of competence. But I have passed on a couple of really big purchases that were served up to me on a platter and that I was fully capable of understanding. For Berkshire's shareholders, myself included, the cost of this thumb-sucking has been huge."
The master rounds off the list with a masterpiece of a comment. It gives us an insight into his almost inhuman like risk aversion qualities and goes us to show that he will hardly ever make an investment unless he is 100% sure of the outcome. It comes out brilliantly in this, his last comment on his investment mistakes of the past twenty-five years: "Our consistently conservative financial policies may appear to have been a mistake, but in my view were not. In retrospect, it is clear that significantly higher, though still conventional, leverage ratios at Berkshire would have produced considerably better returns on equity than the 23.8% we have actually averaged. Even in 1965, perhaps we could have judged there to be a 99% probability that higher leverage would lead to nothing but good. Correspondingly, we might have seen only a 1% chance that some shock factor, external or internal, would cause a conventional debt ratio to produce a result falling somewhere between temporary anguish and default.
We wouldn't have liked those 99:1 odds - and never will. A small chance of distress or disgrace cannot, in our view, be offset by a large chance of extra returns. If your actions are sensible, you are certain to get good results; in most such cases, leverage just moves things along faster. Charlie and I have never been in a big hurry: We enjoy the process far more than the proceeds - though we have learned to live with those also."

Lessons from Warren Buffett – 16

In our previous discussion on the master's 1990 letter to shareholders, we touched upon his fondness for doing business in pessimistic times, mainly for the prices they provide. Let us look what the master has to impart in terms of investment wisdom in his 1991 letter to shareholders.
"Coca-Cola and Gillette are two of the best companies in the world and we expect their earnings to grow at hefty rates in the years ahead. Over time, also, the value of our holdings in these stocks should grow in rough proportion. Last year, however, the valuations of these two companies rose far faster than their earnings. In effect, we got a double-dip benefit, delivered partly by the excellent earnings growth and even more so by the market's reappraisal of these stocks. We believe this reappraisal was warranted. But it can't recur annually: We'll have to settle for a single dip in the future."
The master's above-mentioned quote has been put up not to extol the virtues of the two companies but instead to drive home the enormous advantage of the 'double-dip' benefit that he has mentioned at the end of the paragraph. In the stock markets, it is very important to pay a reasonable multiple to the earnings of a company because if you overpay and if the multiples contract despite the high growth rates enjoyed by the company, then the overall returns stand diluted a bit. In fact, it can even lead to negative returns if the multiples contract to a great extent. On the other hand, investing in even a moderately growing company can lead to attractive returns if the multiples are low.
Imagine a company 'A' having a P/E of 25 and a company 'B' having a P/E of 10. Company 'A' is a high growth company, growing its profits by 20% per year and company 'B' is a relatively low growth company growing its profits annually by 12%. Now, two years down the line, because of 'A's growth rate, if its P/E were to come down to 20 and 'B's were to rise up to 12, then we would have in the case of 'B' what is known as a double dip effect. 'B' has benefited not only from the growth but also from the multiple expansion, resulting into returns in the range of 23% CAGR. 'A' on the other hand, despite its high earnings growth has helped earn its investors a return of just 7.3% CAGR. The main culprit here was the contraction in multiples of 'A', which fell to 20 from a high of 25.
This analysis could easily lead to one of the most important investment lessons and that is to pay a reasonable multiple despite high growth rates. For if there is a contraction, all the benefits from high growth rates go down the drain. Little wonder, the master has always insisted upon an adequate margin of safety, which if put differently, is nothing but buying a stock at multiples, which leave ample room for expansion and where chances of contraction are low.
If one were to apply the above lesson to the events playing out in the Indian stock markets currently, then it becomes clear that while the robust economic growth would continue to drive the growth in earnings of companies, most of the good quality companies are trading at multiples, which do not leave much room for expansion. In fact, if anything, the probability of the multiples coming down for quite a few companies is on the higher side, thus diluting the impact of high growth to a significant extent. Thus, we would advice investors to pay heed to the master and wait patiently for the multiples to come down to levels, where the benefits of the 'double dip' effect become apparent.
In the forthcoming articles, we will discuss the remainder of the master's 1991 letter.
Lessons from Warren Buffett – 17

In the preceding letter of the series, we saw how the master gained significantly from the phenomenon of 'double-dip' that engulfed two of his investment vehicle's best holdings and how we as investors, stand to benefit from the same. In the following write-up, let us see what other tricks the master has up his sleeve through the remainder of his 1991 letter to his shareholders.
"We believe that investors can benefit by focusing on their own look-through earnings. To calculate these, they should determine the underlying earnings attributable to the shares they hold in their portfolio and total these. The goal of each investor should be to create a portfolio (in effect, a "company") that will deliver him or her the highest possible look-through earnings a decade or so from now.
An approach of this kind will force the investor to think about long-term business prospects rather than short-term stock market prospects, a perspective likely to improve results. It's true, of course, that, in the long run, the scoreboard for investment decisions is market price. But prices will be determined by future earnings. In investing, just as in baseball, to put runs on the scoreboard one must watch the playing field, not the scoreboard."
Yet again, the master's crystal-clear thinking and his ability to draw parallels between investing and other fields shines through in the above quote. The master is trying to highlight a simple fact that the probability of success in investing increases manifold if one is focused on building a portfolio that comprises of companies with the best earnings growth potential from a 10-year perspective. However, this is easier said than done. The attention of a multitude of investors in the stock markets is focused on the stock price rather than the underlying earnings. These gullible sets of investors seem to confuse between cause and effect in investing. One must never forget the fact that it is the earnings that drive the returns in the stock markets and not the prices alone. Thus, any strong jump in prices without a concomitant rise in earnings should be viewed with caution.
However, if the trend in the Indian stock market these days is any indication, investors seem to be turning a blind eye towards earnings growth and are buying into equities with promising growth prospects but very little actual earnings to justify the price rise. The risk of indulging in such practices becomes clear when one considers the tech mania of the late 1990s. In anticipation of strong earnings, investors had bid up the price of a lot of tech stocks to such levels that when the earnings failed to meet the lofty expectations, prices crashed, resulting into huge capital erosion. But alas, the investor memory seems to be very short and a similar event is waiting to be played out, although this time in some other sectors.
Hence, one would do well to heed to the master's advice and try and focus not on the stock prices but the underlying earnings. Further, the master is also in favour of having a 10 year view so that the tendency of investors to invest based on a short term view of things gets nipped in the bud and there emerges a portfolio, having companies with a proven track record and a strong and credible management team at the helm.
We will discuss other nuggets from the master's 1991 letter to shareholders in the next article of the series.

Lessons from Warren Buffett – 18

Last week, through the master's 1991 letter to shareholders, we threw some light on his concept of 'look-through' earnings and how one should build a long-term portfolio based on it. This week, let us see what further investment insight the master has up his sleeves in the remainder of the letter from the same year.
In the 1991 letter, while discussing his investments in the media sector, the master delivers yet another gem of an advice that can go a long way towards helping conduct a very good qualitative analyses of companies. Based on his enormous experience in analysing companies, the master classifies firms broadly into two main types, a business and a franchise and believes that many operations fall in some middle ground and can best be described as weak franchises or strong businesses. This is what he has to say on the characteristics of each of them:
"An economic franchise arises from a product or service that: (1) is needed or desired, (2) is thought by its customers to have no close substitute, and (3) is not subject to price regulation. The existence of all three conditions will be demonstrated by a company's ability to regularly price its product or service aggressively and thereby to earn high rates of return on capital. Moreover, franchises can tolerate mismanagement. Inept managers may diminish a franchise's profitability, but they cannot inflict mortal damage.
In contrast, "a business" earns exceptional profits only if it is the low-cost operator or if supply of its product or service is tight. Tightness in supply usually does not last long. With superior management, a company may maintain its status as a low-cost operator for a much longer time, but even then unceasingly faces the possibility of competitive attack. And a business, unlike a franchise, can be killed by poor management."
We believe equity investors can do themselves a world of good by taking the above advice to heart and using them in their analysis. If one were to visualise the financials of a company possessing characteristics of a 'franchise', the company that emerges is the one with a consistent long-term growth in revenues (the master says that a 'franchise' should have a product or a service that is needed or desired with no close substitutes) and high and stable margins, arising from the pricing power that the master mentioned, thus leading to a similar rise in earnings as the topline.
On the other hand, a 'business' would be an operation with erratic growth in earnings owing to frequent demand-supply imbalances or a company with a continuous decline after a period of strong growth owing to the competition playing catching up.
Thus, if an investor approaches the analysis of a firm armed with these tools or with the characteristics firmly ingrained into their brains, then we believe he should be able to weed out a lot of bad companies by simply glancing through their financials of the past few years and save considerable time in the process. Further, as the master has said that since a bad management cannot permanently dent the profitability of a franchise, turbulent times in such firms could be used as an opportunity for entering at attractive levels. It should, however, be borne in mind that the master is also of the opinion that most companies lie between the two definitions and hence, one needs to exercise utmost caution before committing a substantial sum towards a so-called 'franchise'.

Lessons from Warren Buffett – 19

we got to know the master's take on the difference between a 'business' and a 'franchise'. Continuing with the letter from the same year, let us see what other wisdom he has to offer.
With the kind of fortune that the master has amassed over the years, one could be forgiven for thinking him as rather infallible and the one fully capable of identifying the next big industry or the next big multi-bagger. However, this myth is easily demolished in the master's following comments from the 1991 letter.
"Typically, our most egregious mistakes fall in the omission, rather than the commission, category. That may spare Charlie and me some embarrassment, since you don't see these errors; but their invisibility does not reduce their cost. In this mea culpa, I am not talking about missing out on some company that depends upon an esoteric invention (such as Xerox), high-technology (Apple), or even brilliant merchandising (Wal-Mart). We will never develop the competence to spot such businesses early. Instead I refer to business situations that Charlie and I can understand and that seem clearly attractive - but in which we nevertheless end up sucking our thumbs rather than buying."
There are two things that clearly stand out from the master's above quote. One is his ability to flawlessly identify his circle of competence and the second, his objectivity, from which comes his rare trait of accepting one's own mistake and working to eliminate it.
For those investors who believe that big fortune usually comes from identifying the next big thing or the next wave, they must have been surely forced to think again after coming face to face with the master's candid admission that he will never develop the competence to identify say the next 'Microsoft' or 'Pfizer' or how about the next 'Infosys' or the next 'Ranbaxy'. Indeed, outside one's industry of knowledge, it becomes very difficult to identify the next multi-bagger as it is just not high growth potential but a lot of other factors that go into making a highly successful company. In fact, even within one's industry of knowledge, it may prove to be a tough nut to crack.
So, if not the next multi-baggers, then how else can one become a successful long-term investor? The answer could lie in the master's quote from the same letter and given below.
"We continually search for large businesses with understandable, enduring and mouth-watering economics that are run by able and shareholder-oriented managements. This focus doesn't guarantee results: We both have to buy at a sensible price and get business performance from our companies that validate our assessment. But this investment approach - searching for the superstars - offers us our only chance for real success. Charlie and I are simply not smart enough, considering the large sums we work with, to get great results by adroitly buying and selling portions of far-from-great businesses. Nor do we think many others can achieve long-term investment success by flitting from flower to flower."
Thus, in investing as in other walks of life, easy does it. Hence, look around for stable businesses run by competent people and available at attractive prices. Trust us, it is much better than trying to look out for companies possessing the next revolutionary product or a service.

Lessons from Warren Buffett – 20

Through a series of articles over the past few weeks, we discussed Warren Buffett's 1991 letter to the shareholders of his investment vehicle, Berkshire Hathaway. Let us now turn to the letter of the following year and see what investment wisdom the master has to dole out through his 1992 letter to shareholders.
Up front is a comment on the change in the number of shares outstanding of Berkshire Hathaway since its inception in 1964 and this we believe, is a very important message for investors who want to know how genuine wealth can be created. Investors these days are virtually fed on a diet of split and bonuses and new shares issuance, in stark contrast to the master's view on the topic. Laid out below are his comments on shares outstanding of Berkshire Hathaway and new shares issuance.
"Berkshire now has 1,152,547 shares outstanding. That compares, you will be interested to know, to 1,137,778 shares outstanding on October 1, 1964, the beginning of the fiscal year during which Buffett Partnership, Ltd. acquired control of the company."
"We have a firm policy about issuing shares of Berkshire, doing so only when we receive as much value as we give. Equal value, however, has not been easy to obtain, since we have always valued our shares highly. So be it: We wish to increase Berkshire's size only when doing that also increases the wealth of its owners."
"Those two objectives do not necessarily go hand-in-hand as an amusing but value-destroying experience in our past illustrates. On that occasion, we had a significant investment in a bank whose management was hell-bent on expansion. (Aren't they all?) When our bank wooed a smaller bank, its owner demanded a stock swap on a basis that valued the acquiree's net worth and earning power at over twice that of the acquirer's. Our management - visibly in heat - quickly capitulated. The owner of the acquiree then insisted on one other condition: "You must promise me," he said in effect, "that once our merger is done and I have become a major shareholder, you'll never again make a deal this dumb."
It is widely known and documented that Berkshire Hathaway boasts one of the best long-term track records among American corporations in increasing shareholder wealth. However, what is not widely known is the fact that during this nearly three decade long period (1964-1992), the total number of shares outstanding has increased by just over 1%! Put differently, the entire gains have come to the same set of shareholders assuming shares have not changed hands and that too by putting virtually nothing extra other than the original investment. Further, the company has not encouraged unwanted speculation by going in for a stock split or bonus issues, as these measures do nothing to improve the intrinsic values. They merely are tools in the hands of mostly dishonest managements who want to lure naïve investors by offering more shares but at a proportionately reduced price, thus leaving the overall equation unchanged.
How is it that Berkshire Hathaway has raked up returns that rank among the best but has needed very little by way of additional equity. The answer lies in the fact that the company has concentrated most of its investments in companies where shareholder returns have greatly exceeded the cost of capital and where the entire need for future growth has been met by internal accruals. Plus, the company has also made sure that it has made purchases at attractive enough prices. Clearly, investors could do themselves a world of good if they adhere to these basic principles and not get caught in companies, which consistently require additional equity for growth or which issue bonuses or stock-splits to artificially shore up the intrinsic value. For as the master says that even a dormant savings account can lead to higher returns if supplied with more money. The idea is to generate more than one can invest for future growth.
We would discuss the remainder of the 1992 letter in the forthcoming articles.

Lessons from Warren Buffett – 21

Last week, we started with the master's 1992 letter to shareholders and discussed his thoughts on issuing shares. Let us run a little further through the letter and see what other nuggets he has to offer.
We have for long been a supporter of making long-term forecasts with respect to investing and we are glad that we are in extremely good company. For even the master thinks likewise and this is what he has to say on the issue.
"We've long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortunetellers look good. Even now, Charlie and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children. However, it is clear that stocks cannot forever overperform their underlying businesses, as they have so dramatically done for some time, and that fact makes us quite confident of our forecast that the rewards from investing in stocks over the next decade will be significantly smaller than they were in the last. "
The above lines were most likely written by the master in the early days of 1993, a year which was bang in the middle of the best ever 17 year period in the US stock market history i.e. the years between 1981 and 1998. However, this period did not coincide with a similar growth in the US economy. Infact, the best ever stretch for the US economy was a 17-year stretch, which started around 17 year before 1981 and ended exactly in 1981. Courtesy this economic buoyancy and the subsequent lowering of interest rates, the corporate profits started looking up and they too enjoyed one of their best runs ever. Thus, a period of buoyant GDP growth was followed by a period of strong corporate profit growth, which in turn led to increase in share prices. However, share prices grew the fastest because they not only had to grow in line with the corporate profits but also had to play catch up to the economic growth that was witnessed between 1964 and 1981.
Another extremely important factor that led to a more than 10 fold jump in index levels in the period under discussion had psychological origins rather than economic. Investors have an uncanny knack of projecting the present scenario far into the future. And it is this very habit that made them believe that stock prices would continue to rise at the same pace. However, nothing could be further from the truth. Over the long-run, share prices have to follow growth in earnings and anything more could result in a sharp correction. Thus, while the share prices can play catch up to economic growth and corporate profits and hence can grow faster than the two for some amount of time, expecting the same to continue forever, could be a recipe for disaster. And even the master concurs.
We believe similar events are playing themselves out in the Indian stock markets with investors expecting every stock to turn out to be a multi bagger in no time. But as discussed above, this could turn out to be a proposition, which is full of risk of a permanent capital loss. Investors could do very well to remember that over the long-term share prices would follow earnings, which in turn would follow the macroeconomic GDP and this could be a very reasonable assumption to make.

Lessons from Warren Buffett – 22

In our earlier passage on Warren Buffett's 1992 letter to his shareholders, we touched upon his views on short-term forecasting in equity markets and how it could prove worthless. In the following few paragraphs, let us go further down through the letter and see what other investment wisdom he has on offer.
Most of the financing community puts stock investments into one of the two major categories viz. growth and value. It is of the opinion that while the former category comprises stocks that have potential of growing at above average rates, the latter category stocks are likely to grow at below average rates. However, the master belongs to an altogether different camp and we would like to mention that such a method of classification is clearly not the right way to think about equity investments. Let us see what Buffett has to say on the issue and he has been indeed very generous in trying to put his thoughts down to words.
"But how, you will ask, does one decide what's 'attractive'? In answering this question, most analysts feel they must choose between two approaches customarily thought to be in opposition: 'value' and 'growth'. Indeed, many investment professionals see any mixing of the two terms as a form of intellectual cross-dressing.
We view that as fuzzy thinking (in which, it must be confessed, I myself engaged some years ago). In our opinion, the two approaches are joined at the hip: Growth is always a component in the calculation of value, constituting a variable whose importance can range from negligible to enormous and whose impact can be negative as well as positive.
In addition, we think the very term 'value investing' is redundant. What is 'investing' if it is not the act of seeking value at least sufficient to justify the amount paid? Consciously paying more for a stock than its calculated value - in the hope that it can soon be sold for a still-higher price - should be labeled speculation (which is neither illegal, immoral nor - in our view - financially fattening).
Whether appropriate or not, the term 'value investing' is widely used. Typically, it connotes the purchase of stocks having attributes such as a low ratio of price to book value, a low price-earnings ratio, or a high dividend yield. Unfortunately, such characteristics, even if they appear in combination, are far from determinative as to whether an investor is indeed buying something for what it is worth and is therefore truly operating on the principle of obtaining value in his investments. Correspondingly, opposite characteristics - a high ratio of price to book value, a high price-earnings ratio, and a low dividend yield - are in no way inconsistent with a 'value' purchase.
Similarly, business growth, per se, tells us little about value. It's true that growth often has a positive impact on value, sometimes one of spectacular proportions. But such an effect is far from certain. For example, investors have regularly poured money into the domestic airline business to finance profitless (or worse) growth. For these investors, it would have been far better if Orville had failed to get off the ground at Kitty Hawk: The more the industry has grown, the worse the disaster for owners.
Growth benefits investors only when the business in point can invest at incremental returns that are enticing - in other words, only when each dollar used to finance the growth creates over a dollar of long-term market value. In the case of a low-return business requiring incremental funds, growth hurts the investor."
If understood in their entirety, the above paragraphs will surely make the reader a much better investor. We believe the most important takeaways could be as follows:
 Do not categorise stocks into growth and value types. A high P/E or a high price to cash flow stock is not necessarily a growth stock. A low P/E or a low price to cash flow stock is not necessarily a value stock either.
 Growth in profits will have little role in determining value. It is the amount of capital used that will mostly determine value. Lower the capital used to achieve a certain level of growth, higher the intrinsic value.
 There have been industries where the growth has been very good but the capital consumed has been so huge, that the net effect on value has been negative. Example - US airlines.
 Hence, steer clear of sectors and companies where profits grow at fast clip but the return on capital employed are not enough to even cover the cost of capital.
We will save more wisdom from the master for latter articles.


Lessons from Warren Buffett – 23

Before, we read Warren Buffett's discourse on valuations and intrinsic value. In this concluding article on the master's 1992 letter to shareholders, let us see what he has to speak on employee compensation accounting and stock options.
In the year 1992, two new accounting rules came into being out of which one mandated companies to create a liability on the balance sheet to account for present value of employees' post retirement health benefits. The master used the occasion to turn the tables on managers and chieftains who under the pretext of the old method avoided huge dents on their P&Ls and balance sheets. The earlier method required accounting for such benefits only when they are cashed but did not take into account the future liabilities that would arise thus overstating the net worth as well as profits by way of inadequate provisioning. This is what the master had to say on the issue.
"Managers thinking about accounting issues should never forget one of Abraham Lincoln's favorite riddles: "How many legs does a dog have if you call his tail a leg?" The answer: "Four, because calling a tail a leg does not make it a leg." It behooves managers to remember that Abe's right even if an auditor is willing to certify that the tail is a leg."
By quoting the above statements, the master has taken potshots at every accounting convention that understates liabilities and overstates profits and asks investors to guard against such measures. Next he criticizes accounting standard for ESOPs prevailing in the US at that time and this is what he has to say on the topic.
"Typically, executives have argued that options are hard to value and that therefore their costs should be ignored. At other times, managers have said that assigning a cost to options would injure small start-up businesses. Sometimes they have even solemnly declared that "out-of-the-money" options (those with an exercise price equal to or above the current market price) have no value when they are issued.
Oddly, the Council of Institutional Investors has chimed in with a variation on that theme, opining that options should not be viewed as a cost because they "aren't dollars out of a company's coffers." I see this line of reasoning as offering exciting possibilities to American corporations for instantly improving their reported profits. For example, they could eliminate the cost of insurance by paying for it with options. So if you're a CEO and subscribe to this "no cash-no cost" theory of accounting, I'll make you an offer you can't refuse: Give us a call at Berkshire and we will happily sell you insurance in exchange for a bundle of long-term options on your company's stock."
The master has hit the nail on the head when he has further gone on to mention that something of value that is delivered to another party always has costs associated with it and these costs come out of the shareholders' pockets. Thus, things like ESOPs and post retirement health benefits should be appropriately accounted for and should not be hidden under the garb of fuzzy accounting standards and ingenious rationales.
Before we round off the 1992 letter, let us see how the master in a way that he only can so strongly puts up the case for ESOPs to be considered as costs.
"If options aren't a form of compensation, what are they? If compensation isn't an expense, what is it? And, if expenses shouldn't go into the calculation of earnings, where in the world should they go?"

Lessons from Warren Buffett – 24

In the previous article , we rounded off our discussion on Warren Buffett's 1992 letter to shareholders by sharing with you his views on healthcare accounting and ESOPs. Let us now see what insight the master has to offer in his 1993 letter to shareholders.
Ardent followers of the master might not be immune to the fact that whenever an extremely attractive opportunity has presented itself, Buffett has not hesitated to put huge sums in it. In sharp contrast to the current lot of fund manager who use fancy statistical tools to justify diversification, the master has been a believer in making infrequent bets but at the same time making large bets. In other words, he believes that a concentrated portfolio is much better than a diversified portfolio. This is what he has to say on the issue.
"Charlie and I decided long ago that in an investment lifetime it's just too hard to make hundreds of smart decisions. That judgment became ever more compelling as Berkshire's capital mushroomed and the universe of investments that could significantly affect our results shrank dramatically. Therefore, we adopted a strategy that required our being smart - and not too smart at that - only a very few times. Indeed, we'll now settle for one good idea a year. (Charlie says it's my turn.)
The strategy we've adopted precludes our following standard diversification dogma. Many pundits would therefore say the strategy must be riskier than that employed by more conventional investors. We disagree. We believe that a policy of portfolio concentration may well decrease risk if it raises, as it should, both the intensity with which an investor thinks about a business and the comfort-level he must feel with its economic characteristics before buying into it. In stating this opinion, we define risk, using dictionary terms, as "the possibility of loss or injury."
The master does not stop here. Like his previous letters, he once again takes potshots at academicians who define risk as the relative volatility of a stock price with respect to the market or what is now widely known as 'beta'. He very rightly contests that a stock which has been battered by the markets should as per the conventional wisdom bought in ever larger quantities because lower the price, higher the returns in the future. However, followers of beta are very likely to shun the stock for its perceived higher volatility. This is what he has to say on the issue.
"In assessing risk, a beta purist will disdain examining what a company produces, what its competitors are doing, or how much borrowed money the business employs. He may even prefer not to know the company's name. What he treasures is the price history of its stock. In contrast, we'll happily forgo knowing the price history and instead will seek whatever information will further our understanding of the company's business. After we buy a stock, consequently, we would not be disturbed if markets closed for a year or two. We don't need a daily quote on our 100% position in See's or H. H. Brown to validate our well-being. Why, then, should we need a quote on our 7% interest in Coke?"
In the forthcoming articles, we will discuss the remainder of the 1993 letter.


Lessons from Warren Buffett – 25

Concentration over excessive diversification and the futility of using a stock's beta were the two key concepts that we discussed in our previous article on Warren Buffett's 1993 letters to shareholders. However, the master does not stop here and, in the follow up paragraphs, puts forth his views on what is the real risk that an investor should evaluate and how the 'beta' as defined by the academicians fails to spot competitive strengths inherent in certain companies.
First up, the master explains what is the real risk that an investor should assess and goes on to suggest that the first thing that needs to be looked at is whether the aggregate after tax returns from an investment over the holding period keeps the purchasing power of the investor intact and gives him a modest rate of interest on that initial stake. He is of the opinion that though this risk cannot be measured with engineering precision, in a few cases it can be judged with a degree of accuracy. The master then lists out a few primary factors for evaluation. These would be:
1. The certainty with which the long-term economic characteristics of the business can be evaluated;

2.The certainty with which management can be evaluated, both as to its ability to realise the full potential of the business and to wisely employ its cash flows;
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3. The certainty with which management can be counted on to channel the rewards from the business to the shareholders rather than to itself;

4.The purchase price of the business; and

5. The levels of taxation and inflation that will be experienced and that will determine the degree by which an investor's purchasing-power return is reduced from his gross return.
Indeed, the above qualitative parameters are not likely to go down well with analysts who are married to their spreadsheets and sophisticated models. But this in no way reduces their importance. These parameters, the master says, may go a long way in helping an investor see the risks inherent in certain investments without reference to complex equations or price histories.
Buffett further goes on to add that for a person who is brought up on the concept of beta will have difficulties in separating companies with strong competitive advantages from the ones with mundane businesses and this he believes is one of the most ridiculous things to do in stock investing. This is what he has to say in his own inimitable style.
"The competitive strengths of a Coke or Gillette are obvious to even the casual observer of business. Yet the beta of their stocks is similar to that of a great many run-of-the-mill companies who possess little or no competitive advantage. Should we conclude from this similarity that the competitive strength of Coke and Gillette gains them nothing when business risk is being measured? Or should we conclude that the risk in owning a piece of a company - its stock - is somehow divorced from the long-term risk inherent in its business operations? We believe neither conclusion makes sense and that equating beta with investment risk also makes no sense."
He further states, "The theoretician bred on beta has no mechanism for differentiating the risk inherent in, say, a single-product toy company-selling pet rocks or hula hoops from that of another toy company whose sole product is Monopoly or Barbie. But it is quite possible for ordinary investors to make such distinctions if they have a reasonable understanding of consumer behavior and the factors that create long-term competitive strength or weakness. Obviously, every investor will make mistakes. But by confining himself to a relatively few, easy-to-understand cases, a reasonably intelligent, informed and diligent person can judge investment risks with a useful degree of accuracy."
We will continue with our discussion on the remainder of the letter in the next article.
Lessons from Warren Buffett – 26
Few months ago, we at Equitymaster decided to bring out a series on what we think is one of the most valuable and most importantly freely available investment advice. Infact, call it a series of investment advice. Regular readers of this website must have guessed that we are indeed referring to the 30 odd letters or masterpieces if you will, written by Warren Buffett, one of the most successful and foremost proponents of value investing. However, little did we know that the series would coincide with one of the darkest days in the Indian stock market history. While we do feel sorry for the investors who have lost a significant portion of their net worth in the recent melee, for the fortunate others, no better time than this to imbibe the lessons being imparted by the master in value investing, a discipline or a form of investing that we think is one of the safest around.
One of the key mistakes the investors who suffered the most in the recent decline made was they never tried to fathom the relationship between the stock and the underlying business. Instead, they bought what was popular and hoping that there will still be a greater fool out there who would in turn buy from them. We believe that no matter how good the underlying business is, there is always an intrinsic value attached to it and one should not pay even a dime more for the same. Alas, this was not to be the case in the Indian stock markets in recent times. Infact, even those companies that did not have a single paisa of earnings to show for, were trading at egregious valuations. No effort was being made to evaluate the business model and the sustainability or longevity of the business.
In his 1993 letter to shareholders, the master has a very important point to say on why it is important to know the company or the industry that one invests in. This is what he has to offer on the topic.
"In many industries, of course, Charlie and I can't determine whether we are dealing with a "pet rock" or a "Barbie." We couldn't solve this problem, moreover, even if we were to spend years intensely studying those industries. Sometimes our own intellectual shortcomings would stand in the way of understanding, and in other cases the nature of the industry would be the roadblock. For example, a business that must deal with fast-moving technology is not going to lend itself to reliable evaluations of its long-term economics. Did we foresee thirty years ago what would transpire in the television-manufacturing or computer industries? Of course not. (Nor did most of the investors and corporate managers who enthusiastically entered those industries.) Why, then, should Charlie and I now think we can predict the future of other rapidly evolving businesses? We'll stick instead with the easy cases. Why search for a needle buried in a haystack when one is sitting in plain sight?"
As is evident from the above paragraph, an investor does himself no good in the long-run if he keeps on investing without understanding the economics of the underlying business. Infact, even when one is close to cracking the industry economics, some industries are best left alone because they are so dynamic that rapid technological changes might put their very existence at risk. Instead, one should stick with the ones that can be easily understood and not subject to frequent changes.

Lessons from Warren Buffett – 27

Staying within one's circle of competence and investing in simple businesses were some of the key points that we discussed in our previous article on Warren Buffett's 1993 letter to shareholders. Now let us fast forward to the year 1994 and see what investment wisdom the master has to offer in this letter.
Are you one of those guys who are quite keen on learning the nitty-gritty of the stock market but the sheer size of literature that is on offer on the topic makes you nervous? Further, with the kind of resources that the institutions, the ones that you would compete against, have at their disposal, it is quite normal for you to give up the thought without even having tried. Indeed, things like coming out with quaint economic theories, crunching a mountain of numbers and working on sophisticated spread sheets should be best left to professionals. While it is definitely good to be wary of the competition, in investing, one can still comfortably beat the competition without the aid of the sophisticated tools mentioned above. All it needs is loads of discipline and patience.
Thus, for those of you, who in an attempt to invest successfully, are trying to predict the next move of the Fed chief or trying to outguess fellow investors on which party will come to power in the next national elections, you are well advised to stop in your tracks because investing can be done successfully even without making an attempt to figure out these unknowables. Some words of wisdom along similar lines come straight from the master's 1994 letter to shareholders and this is what he has to say on the topic.
"We will continue to ignore political and economic forecasts, which are an expensive distraction for many investors and businessmen. Thirty years ago, no one could have foreseen the huge expansion of the Vietnam War, wage and price controls, two oil shocks, the resignation of a president, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a one-day drop in the Dow of 508 points, or treasury bill yields fluctuating between 2.8% and 17.4%.
But, surprise - none of these blockbuster events made the slightest dent in Ben Graham's investment principles. Nor did they render unsound the negotiated purchases of fine businesses at sensible prices. Imagine the cost to us, then, if we had let a fear of unknowns cause us to defer or alter the deployment of capital. Indeed, we have usually made our best purchases when apprehensions about some macro event were at a peak. Fear is the foe of the faddist, but the friend of the fundamentalist.
A different set of major shocks is sure to occur in the next 30 years. We will neither try to predict these nor to profit from them. If we can identify businesses similar to those we have purchased in the past, external surprises will have little effect on our long-term results."
Infact, the master is not alone in his thinking on the subject but has an equally successful supporter who goes by the name of 'Peter Lynch', one of the most revered fund managers ever. He had once famously quipped, "If you spend 13 minutes per year trying to predict the economy, you have wasted 10 minutes".
Indeed, if these guys in their extremely long investment career could continue to ignore political and economic factors and focus just on the strength of the underlying business on hand and still come out triumphant, we do not see any reason as to why the same methodology cannot be copied here in India with equally good results.

Lessons from Warren Buffett – 28

we read about Warren Buffett highlighting, in his 1994 letter to shareholders, the futility in trying to make economic prediction while investing. Let us go further down the same letter and see what other investment wisdom the master has to offer.
One of the biggest qualities that separate the master from the rest of the investors is his knack of identifying on a consistent basis, investments that have the ability to provide the best risk adjusted returns on a long-term basis. In other words, the master does a very good job of arriving at an intrinsic value of a company based on which he takes his investment decisions. Indeed, if the key to successful long-term investing is not consistently identifying opportunities with the best risk adjusted returns than what it is.
However, not all investors and even the managers of companies are able to fully grasp this concept and get bogged down by near term outlook and strong earnings growth. This is nowhere more true than in the field of M&A where acquisitions are justified to the acquiring company's shareholders by stating that these are anti-dilutive to earnings and hence, are good for the company's long-term interest. The master feels that this is not the correct way of looking at things and this is what he has to say on the issue.
"In corporate transactions, it's equally silly for the would-be purchaser to focus on current earnings when the prospective acquiree has either different prospects, different amounts of non-operating assets, or a different capital structure. At Berkshire, we have rejected many merger and purchase opportunities that would have boosted current and near-term earnings but that would have reduced per-share intrinsic value. Our approach, rather, has been to follow Wayne Gretzky's advice: "Go to where the puck is going to be, not to where it is." As a result, our shareholders are now many billions of dollars richer than they would have been if we had used the standard catechism."
He goes on to say, "The sad fact is that most major acquisitions display an egregious imbalance: They are a bonanza for the shareholders of the acquiree; they
increase the income and status of the acquirer's management; and they are a honey pot for the investment bankers and other professionals on both sides. But, alas, they usually reduce the wealth of the acquirer's shareholders, often to a substantial extent. That happens because the acquirer typically gives up more intrinsic value than it receives."
Indeed, rather than giving in to their adventurous instincts, managers could do a world of good to their shareholders if they allocate their capital wisely and look for the best risk adjusted return from the excess cash they generate from their operations. If such opportunities turn out to be sparse, then they are better off returning the excess cash to shareholders by way of dividends or buybacks. However, unfortunately not all managers adhere to this routine and indulge in squandering shareholder wealth by making costly acquisitions where they end up giving more intrinsic value than they receive.

Lessons from Warren Buffett – 29

In the previous article, we heard Warren Buffett speak on how corporate managers destroy shareholder value by resorting to unwanted acquisitions through his 1994 letter to shareholders. Let us proceed further in the same letter and see what other investment wisdom the master has to offer.
The current mortgage crisis in the US has put the global economy on the brink of a recession and has made big dents in the balance sheets of some of world's top financial institutions. Thus, with damages of such a magnitude, it is only natural to assume that the heads of these institutions during whose tenure the crisis took place should face financial penalties of some kind. However, if the pay packets of some of these executives are any indication, people harboring such notions are doing nothing but wallowing in outright fantasy. As per reports, CEOs of some of these institutions who have posted billions of dollars of losses due to the sub prime crisis will continue to rake in millions of dollars. All that shareholders get by way of solace is their ouster by the board or voluntary resignation. So much for alignment of shareholders' interest with that of the CEO or the management!
This is not a standalone case and there have been many such instances in the past where despite bringing companies down to their knees, CEOs and top management have gone on to earn fat salaries. Certainly, boots that all of us would love to get into! After all who would not want to lead a company where while salaries are tied to profits on the upside, there is no financial punishment to speak of when losses happen by the billions.
Yet, practices like these are commonplace in the corporate world and year after year, shareholders of troubled companies have to bear the egregious costs of the animal like aggressive instincts of its management. Thus, in order to avoid traps like these, it becomes important that when we as investors invest, we should have a close look at the compensations that the management gets in times both good as well as bad and see whether the company has a proper compensation system in place. A lot can be learnt if we have a look at how the master plans compensation for executives in the companies Berkshire own and his views on the issue. This is what he has to say on fair compensation practices.
"In setting compensation, we like to hold out the promise of large carrots, but make sure their delivery is tied directly to results in the area that a manager controls. When capital invested in an operation is significant, we also both charge managers a high rate for incremental capital they employ and credit them at an equally high rate for capital they release.
It has become fashionable at public companies to describe almost every compensation plan as aligning the interests of management with those of shareholders. In our book, alignment means being a partner in both directions, not just on the upside. Many "alignment" plans flunk this basic test, being artful forms of "heads I win, tails you lose."
In all instances, we pursue rationality. Arrangements that pay off in capricious ways, unrelated to a manager's personal accomplishments, may well be welcomed by certain managers. Who, after all, refuses a free lottery ticket? But such arrangements are wasteful to the company and cause the manager to lose focus on what should be his real areas of concern. Additionally, irrational behavior at the parent may well encourage imitative behavior at subsidiaries."

Lessons from Warren Buffett's – 30

Executive compensation was the focal point in our previous article on Warren Buffett's 1994 letter to shareholders. In this concluding discussion based on letter from the same year, let us see what other investment wisdom the master has on offer.
It is said that we human beings are endowed with certain quaint characteristics that force us to make a mess of simple and easy to understand things and turn them complex. And nowhere do these habits hurt us the most than in the field of stock investments. We liken it to some IQ testing event like the Math or the Science Olympiad. Tempted by stories that they could be potential multi baggers, we tend to invest in companies with the most obscure names having the most complex business models.
But unfortunately, our rewards, which in this case are the returns, are not linked to the degree of success we have had in unraveling complex business models but the extent to which we have correctly identified its intrinsic value and obstacles that have the potential to erode the same. Not surprisingly then, these pre-requisites call for businesses, which are simple and easy to evaluate. Thus, as in life so also in investing, easy does it. This is precisely what the master has to say in his 1994 letter to shareholders. Laid out below are his comments on the issue.
"Investors should remember that their scorecard is not computed using Olympic-diving methods: Degree-of-difficulty doesn't count. If you are right about a business whose value is largely dependent on a single key factor that is both easy to understand and enduring, the payoff is the same as if you had correctly analyzed an investment alternative characterized by many constantly shifting and complex variables."
Another habit that we often fall prey to is conforming to the herd mentality and this habit too deprives us of attractive money making opportunities. One look at the attitude of people towards investing before and after the recent correction in the Indian stock markets and you would know what we are talking about?
Before the recent correction, when the market was trading at its peak and most of the business way above their intrinsic values, investors were queuing up to buy stocks in the hope that since the times are good, there will always be buyers ready to buy from them what they themselves have bought at exorbitant prices. But alas, that was not to be the case and they had to pay dearly for their mistakes.
On the other hand, when quite a few businesses have now come down to a fraction of their intrinsic value after the correction, investors seem to be running away under the pretext that the time is not good to buy equities. These people could take a lesson or two from the master who has the following to say on this tendency among investors.
"We try to price, rather than time, purchases. In our view, it is folly to forego buying shares in an outstanding business whose long-term future is predictable, because of short-term worries about an economy or a stock market that we know to be unpredictable. Why scrap an informed decision because of an uninformed guess?"

Lessons from Warren Buffett – 31
In the previous article, we rounded off Warren Buffett's 1994 letter to shareholders by bringing face to face with investors his 'simplicity of business models' and 'to heck with the timing of purchases' approach to investing. Let us now move on to the letter from the succeeding year, 1995, and see what investment wisdom he has to impart through this letter.
In one of our previous discussions, we did highlight the master's discomfort with most of the mergers and acquisitions that take place in the corporate world and also put forth his view of them being value destructive to shareholders. However, this does not mean that he is completely averse to mergers and acquisitions (M&As). In fact, even he has dabbled in a few M&As but believes that his company, Berkshire Hathaway has certain advantages, which put it in a position to do only the most favorable transactions. What are these advantages and how best can others incorporate them into their own decision-making processes? Let us find out in the master's own words.
"We do have a few advantages, perhaps the greatest being that we don't have a strategic plan. Thus we feel no need to proceed in an ordained direction (a course leading almost invariably to silly purchase prices) but can instead simply decide what makes sense for our owners. In doing that, we always mentally compare any move we are contemplating with dozens of other opportunities open to us, including the purchase of small pieces of the best businesses in the world via the stock market. Our practice of making this comparison - acquisitions against passive investments - is a discipline that managers focused simply on expansion seldom use."
While managers obsessed with expansion do not mull over the fact that there could be a better use of their company's cash flows other than pursuing an M&A, Buffett weighs all his investment decisions against a common gold standard, which is - 'Is this the best possible use of shareholder's money?' If the answer is yes, he will pursue the M&A transaction and if it isn't, then he will look at other passive investments like investing in equities. There is no compulsion on him to pursue an M&A transaction if the price is not right because he can either consider other options or can wait. However, different managers competing to acquire the same asset have no such luxuries and are willing to shell out significantly more than the intrinsic value of that asset. Buffett though, prefers quality to quantity.
Further down, the master talks of another couple of advantages that he can offer to the target companies.
"In making acquisitions, we have a further advantage: As payment, we can offer sellers a stock backed by an extraordinary collection of outstanding businesses. An individual or a family wishing to dispose of a single fine business, but also wishing to defer personal taxes indefinitely, is apt to find Berkshire stock a particularly comfortable holding. I believe, in fact, that this calculus played an important part in the two acquisitions for which we paid shares in 1995."
"Beyond that, sellers sometimes care about placing their companies in a corporate home that will both endure and provide pleasant, productive working conditions for their managers. Here again, Berkshire offers something special. Our managers operate with extraordinary autonomy. Additionally, our ownership structure enables sellers to know that when I say we are buying to keep, the promise means something. For our part, we like dealing with owners who care what happens to their companies and people. A buyer is likely to find fewer unpleasant surprises dealing with that type of seller than with one simply auctioning off his business."
To conclude, while getting involved in an M&A transaction, if managers take into account above mentioned factors like -
1. not having a 'achieve at any cost' attitude towards acquisitions,
2. giving the sellers a safe and growing asset like 'Berkshire Hathaway's' stock in exchange for partial or complete stake in their own company, and
3. giving them complete autonomy to run the company even after consummating the acquisition, ...then barring for some unforeseen circumstances, one is unlikely to go wrong in an M&A transaction.

Lessons from Warren Buffett – 32

In our previous article in the series, we came across few of the advantages that Warren Buffett has vis-à-vis acquisitions over other firms and managers. Let us go further down the same letter and have a look at some of the other nuggets on investment wisdom the master has to offer.
It is often said that if investing all about building a few statistical models and taking positions based upon the output from the same, then all the quants and statisticians would have been billionaires. But fortunately, investing is as much about qualitative aspects as it is about quantitative ones. And no one epitomizes it better than Warren Buffett. Right from the first letter, the master has come up with some unique ways in describing the economic characteristics of a lot of industries and businesses. And in the letter for the year 1995 too, which we are currently discussing, the master pulls out few more arrows from his quiver. Although funny and humorous at first sight, his descriptions often contain a lot of insights for the person who properly chews upon them.
Since 1995 was the year where his investment vehicle, Berkshire Hathaway made a couple of acquisitions in the retail space, the master has devoted a few lines towards explaining his views on the sector and why with a few exceptions, he generally tends to sidestep investments in retail firms. This is what he has to say on the general characteristics of any retail business.
"Retailing is a tough business. During my investment career, I have watched a large number of retailers enjoy terrific growth and superb returns on equity for a period, and then suddenly nosedive, often all the way into bankruptcy. This shooting-star phenomenon is far more common in retailing than it is in manufacturing or service businesses. In part, this is because a retailer must stay smart, day after day. Your competitor is always copying and then topping whatever you do. Shoppers are meanwhile beckoned in every conceivable way to try a stream of new merchants. In retailing, to coast is to fail."
Indeed, anyone with a few bucks in his pocket is allowed to enter a retail outlet. And when this happens, the trade secrets are nothing but an open book, thus letting some key competitive advantages slip into oblivion. Soon, competitors would be employing the same tricks and eventually might even lure the customers from under the nose of the successful retailer. Thus, the management of a retail firm in order to periodically bring out new tricks from the bag has to be on its foot all the time and not focus too much on expansion that may eat into a lot of its day-to-day management time. Further, with profit margins for most the players being wafer-thin, cost control is of the essence, which again calls for increased involvement in the day-to-day management.
Contrast this with a manufacturing business, be it a value added product like the automobile or a commodity, where technology and price contracts are a closely guarded secret, thus giving the management enough headroom to further expand the business and tap into newer markets. Thus, as is rightly said by the master, in the retail business, to coast is to fail.
To conclude, the master has given a very interesting name to the retail business, which he calls 'have-to-be-smart-everyday-business'. And he compares it to another kind of business, which he calls 'have-to-be-smart-once' business. Laid out below is a small paragraph on how he brings out the contrast in these two businesses in his own inimitable style.
"In contrast to this have-to-be-smart-every-day business, there is what I call the have-to-be-smart-once business. For example, if you were smart enough to buy a network TV station very early in the game, you could put in a shiftless and backward nephew to run things, and the business would still do well for decades. For a retailer, hiring that nephew would be an express ticket to bankruptcy."

Lessons from Warren Buffett – 33

In the previous article, we got to know Warren Buffet's take on the retail business and what kind of people he would prefer at the helm of such a business. Let us now turn to the letter for the year 1996 and see what investment wisdom the master has to offer through this letter.
The investing genius of the master has shone through amply in the letters that he has written to his shareholders so far. However, while there was no doubt in anyone's minds that Berkshire Hathaway is indeed a shareholder friendly company, in the letter that we are currently discussing, the master has made a few comments that would further dispel any notions that people have with respect to the shareholder friendliness of the company. These comments are a big lesson to those greedy promoters who rob minority shareholders of their hard earned money by giving them some extremely misguided estimates of the intrinsic value of the company. Nowhere this is more evident than in the case of IPOs, most of them so obscenely overpriced that crashes like the recent ones reduce highly priced stocks to mere wads of paper. Minority shareholders are nothing but equal partners, having a proportionate stake in the company and it is grossly unfair that greedy promoters become rich at the expense of innocent partners.
If the master's comments on the issue, which are laid out below are properly paid heed to, it can make equity investing for the uninformed and innocent minority shareholder an experience with significantly lesser pain.
This is what Warren Buffett has to say on the issue:
"Over time, the aggregate gains made by Berkshire shareholders must of necessity match the business gains of the company. When the stock temporarily overperforms or underperforms the business, a limited number of shareholders - either sellers or buyers - receive outsized benefits at the expense of those they trade with. Generally, the sophisticated have an edge over the innocents in this game.
Though our primary goal is to maximize the amount that our shareholders, in total, reap from their ownership of Berkshire, we wish also to minimize the benefits going to some shareholders at the expense of others. These are goals we would have were we managing a family partnership, and we believe they make equal sense for the manager of a public company. In a partnership, fairness requires that partnership interests be valued equitably when partners enter or exit; in a public company, fairness prevails when market price and intrinsic value are in sync. Obviously, they won't always meet that ideal, but a manager - by his policies and communications - can do much to foster equity.
Of course, the longer a shareholder holds his shares, the more bearing Berkshire's business results will have on his financial experience - and the less it will matter what premium or discount to intrinsic value prevails when he buys and sells his stock. That's one reason we hope to attract owners with long-term horizons. Overall, I think we have succeeded in that pursuit. Berkshire probably ranks number one among large American corporations in the percentage of its shares held by owners with a long-term view."



Lessons from Warren Buffett – 34

we read Warren Buffett discuss about the necessity of communicating to the minority shareholders, a true assessment of the intrinsic value of a business in his 1996 letter to shareholders. Let us go further down the same letter and see what other investment wisdom the master has to offer.
Blaise Pascal, the great French philosopher and mathematician had once said. "All men's miseries derive from not being able to sit in a quiet room alone." The quote probably rings truer in the field of equity investing than anywhere else. Blaming job related compulsions, most money managers will be frequently seen trading in securities at the outbreak of every market related news like rise in inflation, widening of trade deficit, discount rate cuts and so on. But is it necessary?
The master thinks otherwise. And he puts forward a very simple argument. Had the same money managers been 100% owners of the businesses they so feverishly trade in, would they resort to the same tactics? The answer is most likely to be - No! And the reasons are not difficult to find. Since his inactivity could lead to people believing that he is not on top of his game, a fund manager has to make some moves to stay in news. Thus, unable to sit quietly in a room, he resorts to frequent trading in securities, which not only incur unnecessary frictional costs but might also result in him exchanging a good quality long-term investment for a mediocre business.
Warren Buffett though steers clear of such tactics and instead prefers long periods of inactivity to trading on every market related news. This is what he has to say on the issue.
"Inactivity strikes us as intelligent behavior. Neither we nor most business managers would dream of feverishly trading highly-profitable subsidiaries because a small move in the Federal Reserve's discount rate was predicted or because some Wall Street pundit had reversed his views on the market. Why, then, should we behave differently with our minority positions in wonderful businesses? The art of investing in public companies successfully is little different from the art of successfully acquiring subsidiaries. In each case, you simply want to acquire, at a sensible price, a business with excellent economics and able, honest management. Thereafter, you need only monitor whether these qualities are being preserved."
"When carried out capably, an investment strategy of that type will often result in its practitioner owning a few securities that will come to represent a very large portion of his portfolio. This investor would get a similar result if he followed a policy of purchasing an interest in, say, 20% of the future earnings of a number of outstanding college basketball stars. A handful of these would go on to achieve NBA stardom, and the investor's take from them would soon dominate his royalty stream. To suggest that this investor should sell off portions of his most successful investments simply because they have come to dominate his portfolio is akin to suggesting that the Bulls trade Michael Jordan because he has become so important to the team."


Lessons from Warren Buffett - 35

In the previous article, we read why Warren Buffett prefers long periods of inactivity when it comes to making investments. Let us go further down the same letter (1996) and see what other investment wisdom he has on offer.
As ordinary investors, we would expect Buffett to be a prognosticator of the highest order and skillful at investing in industries that are going to emerge as the winners in the future. After all, if one is compounding money at such a great rate, one has to stay ahead of the crowd and invest in every potential multi bagger there can be. However, nothing could be further from the truth. The master, contrary to what we think of him, detests change when it comes to investments. Instead, he prefers industries with longevity and stability to the ones that grow exponentially in the initial years but eventually decline in few years.
The reasons would not be difficult to find. As individuals, we always endeavor to stick with the tried and the tested, especially when the stakes are high. But in investing, the greed of earning outsized returns is so high that we tend to invest in companies that show a lot of promise by being in industries at the forefront of technological breakthroughs but have little by way of earnings. This may not be such a good idea because while a lot of companies try to reach the top, very few manage to do so and hence our odds of zeroing in on a winner are not in our favour. Further, there is also an additional risk of technological obsolescence associated with the products of such companies, which may prove to be a big drain on cash flows, thus lowering returns. Little wonder, the master prefers businesses that are able to grow their profits for many years into the future and whose products are not impacted by the dynamics of technology that otherwise improves the standard of living of society.
Let us now read the master's thoughts on the issue in his own words.
"In studying the investments we have made in both subsidiary companies and common stocks, you will see that we favor businesses and industries unlikely to experience major change. The reason for that is simple: Making either type of purchase, we are searching for operations that we believe are virtually certain to possess enormous competitive strength ten or twenty years from now. A fast-changing industry environment may offer the chance for huge wins, but it precludes the certainty we seek."
"I should emphasize that, as citizens, Charlie and I welcome change: Fresh ideas, new products, innovative processes and the like cause our country's standard of living to rise, and that's clearly good. As investors, however, our reaction to a fermenting industry is much like our attitude toward space exploration: We applaud the endeavor but prefer to skip the ride."

Lessons from Warren Buffett – 36

we read that although Warren Buffett likes the increasing prosperity and technological advancements happening in the world today, for making investments he prefers businesses that are stable and not subject to much changes. Let us go down the same letter i.e., Buffett’s shareholders’ letter for the year 1996 and see what other investment wisdom he has to offer.
Carrying the theme of stable, sustainable business from the last article forward, there are indeed a lot many business that are say 30, 40, 50 and more than 50 years old and are still around. But as per the master, businesses that are still continuing to add substantial value to their shareholders without diversification and will continue to do so well into the future are indeed very few. He calls these companies 'The Inevitables' and reckons that in his own investment lifetime, he has been unable to unearth a very few 'Inevitables'.
Thus, if a person who is so widely acknowledged as one of the most astute investors ever is not able to unravel more than a few 'Inevitables', we indeed have our task cut out if we were to discover a few of these companies. However, the idea that there are indeed very few 'Inevitables' on the face of this earth may make us more rigorous in our analyses of companies and thus increase possibilities of making attractive returns over the long-term period.
The master also cautions investors to be really wary of the 'Imposters', the companies, which may display characteristics akin to the 'Inevitables' but which may eventually buckle under the pressure of competition and hence, erode shareholder wealth. The companies that are most likely to display these qualities would obviously be the leaders in fast growing industries, which have continued to rule the market for many years. However, leadership alone is not a guarantee of success.
Let us see what the master has to say on the issue.
“Leadership alone provides no certainties: Witness the shocks some years back at General Motors, IBM and Sears, all of which had enjoyed long periods of seeming invincibility. Though some industries or lines of business exhibit characteristics that endow leaders with virtually insurmountable advantages, and that tend to establish ‘survival of the fittest’ as almost a natural law, most do not. Thus, for every ‘Inevitable’, there are dozens of ‘Impostors’, companies now riding high but vulnerable to competitive attacks. Considering what it takes to be an ‘Inevitable’, Charlie and I recognise that we will never be able to come up with a Nifty Fifty or even a Twinkling Twenty. To the ‘Inevitables’ in our portfolio, therefore, we add a few ‘Highly Probables’.”
If one digs a little deeper on whatever the master has to say in the above paragraph and carefully focuses on the words that he uses, it is clear that Warren Buffett is trying to bring the art of investing as much close to science as possible. Since investing is an art, how does an investor increase his odds of success? To answer the question, let us turn to a cricketing analogy. If a man is asked to choose between say a Sachin Tendulkar and a very promising debutant and is forced to bet his entire fortune on who is more likely to score a century in demanding conditions, most rational men would undoubtedly opt for Tendulkar as he has been a proven performer at all levels and against all opposition. Thus, in investing, one increases his/her chances of success manifold if one is able to find the investing equivalent of Tendulkar or what the master calls the 'Inevitables', companies that have performed consistently and in all economic cycles.

Lessons from Warren Buffett - 37

In the previous articles, we read Warren Buffett dish out (in his 1996 letter to shareholders) a few examples on why investing in market leading companies alone is no guarantee to success in stock markets. Let us move further down the same letter and see what other investment wisdom he has to offer.
After spending quite a substantial portion of the letter on detailing his investment methods and the kind of businesses he buys into, the master then turned his attention towards those investors who wish to construct their own portfolios and the techniques they must adopt in order to earn attractive returns year after year.
The master's advice is a welcome relief especially for investors who find it extremely hard to understand some of the modern finance theories like CAPM, alpha, beta, option pricing etc. It will definitely not be a gross exaggeration to state that Warren Buffett's entire success story has been woven without any help from these concepts. Instead, he famously goes on to say that in investing, only two skills are of paramount importance, those of valuing a business and ways of thinking about market prices.
Towards an investing teamwork
He further goes on to add that although investing is simple it is indeed not very easy because not all businesses can be evaluated with a great degree of certainty and hence investors should be aware of what businesses they are in a position to correctly evaluate. This in turn calls for knowing exactly what one's circle of competence is and correctly identifying the limits of the same. It is only when one acquires the patience and the discipline to do so, that one can think of achieving above normal returns in the market place otherwise one is more likely to be consigned to average returns.
Let us now go back to the letter and understand the concept in the master's own words. This is what he has to say on the issue.
"Should you choose, however, to construct your own portfolio, there are a few thoughts worth remembering. Intelligent investing is not complex, though that is far from saying that it is easy. What an investor needs is the ability to correctly evaluate selected businesses. Note that word ‘selected’: You don't have to be an expert on every company, or even many. You only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence. The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital."
He further states, "To invest successfully, you need not understand beta, efficient markets, modern portfolio theory, option pricing or emerging markets. You may, in fact, be better off knowing nothing of these. That, of course, is not the prevailing view at most business schools, whose finance curriculum tends to be dominated by such subjects. In our view, though, investment students need only two well-taught courses – ‘How to value a business?’, and ‘How to think about market prices’."
"Your goal as an investor should simply be to purchase, at a rational price, a part interest in an easily-understandable business whose earnings are virtually certain to be materially higher five, ten and twenty years from now. Over time, you will find only a few companies that meet these standards - so when you see one that qualifies, you should buy a meaningful amount of stock. You must also resist the temptation to stray from your guidelines: If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes. Put together a portfolio of companies whose aggregate earnings march upward over the years, and so also will the portfolio's market value."
Buffett goes on to say, "Though it's seldom recognized, this is the exact approach that has produced gains for Berkshire shareholders. Had those gains in earnings not materialized, there would have been little increase in Berkshire's value."

Lessons from Warren Buffett – 38

In the previous article, we rounded off our discussion on Warren Buffett's 1996 letter to shareholders by making readers know the master's advice to investors who want to build their own portfolios. Let us now proceed to the letter from the year 1997 and see what investing gems lie hidden in it.
A mathematician’s wisdom true to investing
"All men's miseries derive from not being able to sit quiet in a room alone", said the noted mathematician Blaise Pascal. These words ring true in the world of investing if not anywhere else. As much as the fundamentals of the company are important while making investment decisions, key consideration has to be given to the price as well. For even the best of businesses bought at expensive valuations are not likely to lead to attractive returns.
This is where discipline plays a key role. In an environment where prices are rising and each man and his aunt is making money, it is very difficult to remain sane especially with regards to valuations. As the master himself admits that although it is not possible to predict when prices will come down and to what extent, one can do a world of good to one's investment returns if good businesses are bought at decent prices. In fact, the master is believed to have waited as much as few decades for some of his investments to come down at valuations that he was comfortable with and the ones that he believed incorporated a sufficient margin of safety.

What is your margin of safety?

So, what is the master preaching?

In his 1997 letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett has compared this predicament to a game of baseball and this is what he has to say on the issue:
Though we are delighted with what we own, we are not pleased with our prospects for committing incoming funds. Prices are high for both businesses and stocks. That does not mean that the prices of either will fall – we have absolutely no view on that matter – but it does mean that we get relatively little in prospective earnings when we commit fresh money.”
He further states, “Under these circumstances, we try to exert a Ted Williams kind of discipline. In his book ‘The Science of Hitting’, Ted explains that he carved the strike zone into 77 cells, each the size of a baseball. Swinging only at balls in his ‘best’ cell, he knew, would allow him to bat .400; reaching for balls in his ‘worst’ spot, the low outside corner of the strike zone, would reduce him to .230. In other words, waiting for the fat pitch would mean a trip to the Hall of Fame; swinging indiscriminately would mean a ticket to the minors.”
Decipline in investing is the key!
Finally, he asserts, “If they are in the strike zone at all, the business ‘pitches’ we now see are just catching the lower outside corner. If we swing, we will be locked into low returns. But if we let all of today's balls go by, there can be no assurance that the next ones we see will be more to our liking. Perhaps the attractive prices of the past were the aberrations, not the full prices of today. Unlike Ted, we can't be called out if we resist three pitches that are barely in the strike zone; nevertheless, just standing there, day after day, with my bat on my shoulder is not my idea of fun.”


Lessons from Warren Buffett – 39

In the previous article, we heard the master talk about the discipline in investing by using a baseball analogy in his 1997 letter to shareholders. Let us go further down the same letter to see what other investment wisdom he has to offer.
Have you ever wondered, "Why is it that whenever departmental or garment stores announce their yearly sales, people flock to these places and purchase goods by the truckloads but the very same people will not put a dime when similar situation plays itself out in the stock market." Indeed, whenever one is confident of the future direction of the economy, like we currently are of India, corrections of big magnitudes in the stock market can be viewed as an excellent buying opportunity. This is because just as in the case of departmental or grocery stores, a large number of stocks are available at 'sale' during these corrections and hence, one should not let go of such opportunities without making huge purchases. This is exactly what the master has to say through some of the comments in his 1997 letter to shareholders that we have reproduced below.
"A short quiz: If you plan to eat hamburgers throughout your life and are not a cattle producer, should you wish for higher or lower prices for beef? Likewise, if you are going to buy a car from time to time but are not an auto manufacturer, should you prefer higher or lower car prices? These questions, of course, answer themselves."
"But now for the final exam: If you expect to be a net saver during the next five years, should you hope for a higher or lower stock market during that period? Many investors get this one wrong. Even though they are going to be net buyers of stocks for many years to come, they are elated when stock prices rise and depressed when they fall. In effect, they rejoice because prices have risen for the "hamburgers" they will soon be buying. This reaction makes no sense. Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices."
Simple isn't it! If someone is expected to be a buyer of certain goods over the course of the next few years, he or she will definitely be elated if prices of the goods fall. So why have a different attitude while making stock purchases. Having such frames of reference in mind helps one avoid the herd mentality and make rational decisions. Hence, the next time the stock market undergoes a big correction; think of it as one of those sales where good quality stocks are available at attractive prices and then it will certainly be difficult for you to not to make an investment decision.

Lessons from Warren Buffett – 40

We saw why Warren Buffett would much prefer an environment of lower prices of equities than a higher one. We would now have a look on what the master has to offer in his 1999* letter to shareholders.
Taking leaf from history
If gold in the 1970s and the Japanese stock markets in the 1980s was one's ticket to becoming a millionaire, then one wouldn't have gone too wrong investing in tech stocks or to be more specific, the NASDAQ in the 1990s. Not surprisingly then, investors who did not have a single tech stock in their portfolios would have had a high probability of lagging the overall markets. The master's aversion to tech stocks is now legendary and he too was caught at the wrong end of the tech stick. While he did reasonably well in the earlier part of the 90s decade, in the year 1999, the numbers finally caught up with him and he recorded, what he himself termed the worst absolute performance of his tenure. It was not as if the master made some big mistakes but some of the businesses that his investment vehicle operated had a disappointing year and the problem got magnified because of the great success stories elsewhere, notably the tech sector.
It is seldom that investors of caliber of Buffett go wrong and when they do, it does provide a lot of fodder for the media. Quite expectedly then, magazines and newspapers pounced on the story and titles like 'Has the Buffett era ended?’ or ‘What's wrong Mr. Buffett?’ were not very uncommon to find. The master however refused to buckle under pressure and maybe followed the dictum of his mentor Benjamin Graham who had once famously said - "You're neither right nor wrong because other people agree with you. You're right because your facts are right and your reasoning is right-and that's the only thing that makes you right. And if your facts and reasoning are right, you don't have to worry about anybody else."
The master had reasoned that tech stocks did not come inside his circle of competence and he had hard time valuing them as he was not aware what such businesses would look like 5 to 10 years down the line. Investors can indeed draw one big lesson from this event. Regardless of the environment and the pressure one has, it always make sense to stick to one's circle of competence. Only those people who are able to do this on a consistent basis can increase their chances of earning attractive returns on their investments on a consistent basis.
And was the master proved right? Indeed! Other investors lapped up tech stocks on the premise that although they did not understand the business fully they would surely find another buyer to whom they will sell. Although this trend did last for a few years, when the bubble burst, it left a lot of financial destruction in its wake. The master surely had the last laugh.
While there have been a lot of theories floating around on the master's aversion to tech stocks, in the letter for the year 1999, he has laid out a few reasons on why he would not consider investing in tech stocks. Let us read the master's own words what he has to say on the issue.
Buffett in his own words
"Our problem - which we can't solve by studying up - is that we have no insights into which participants in the tech field possess a truly durable competitive advantage. Our lack of tech insights, we should add, does not distress us. After all, there are a great many business areas in which Charlie (Buffett’s business partner) and I have no special capital-allocation expertise. For instance, we bring nothing to the table when it comes to evaluating patents, manufacturing processes or geological prospects. So we simply don't get into judgments in those fields.”
He further says, “If we have a strength, it is in recognizing when we are operating well within our circle of competence and when we are approaching the perimeter. Predicting the long-term economics of companies that operate in fast-changing industries is simply far beyond our perimeter. If others claim predictive skill in those industries - and seem to have their claims validated by the behavior of the stock market - we neither envy nor emulate them. Instead, we just stick with what we understand. If we stray, we will have done so inadvertently, not because we got restless and substituted hope for rationality. Fortunately, it's almost certain there will be opportunities from time to time for Berkshire to do well within the circle we've staked out."
* We have skipped Buffett’s letter for the year 1998, as we believe it to be a little light on wisdom.



Lessons from Warren Buffett – 41

In the previous article, we read Warren Buffett describe his reluctance to invest in tech stocks and the key reasons behind the same (in his 1999 letter to shareholders). Let us move further to the next year and see what the master has to offer in terms of investment wisdom at the turn of the millennium i.e., in his letter from the year 2000.
Buffett's acquisition spree
The year 2000 was the year that could easily go down in Berkshire's history as the ‘year of acquisitions’. Sensing favorable market conditions, the master completed two transactions that were initiated in 1999 and bought another six businesses during 2000, taking the total to eight. This steady stream of acquisitions is perhaps what inspired him to once again bring his theory of valuations out from the closet and present it before his shareholders. However, while the underlying principles of his theory remained the same, it came cloaked in a different analogy.
What Aesop taught Buffett?
This time, the master has turned to Aesop for help and likens the process of performing valuations to his famous saying - 'a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush'. Without getting too much into details, suffice to say that the master reaffirms his faith in the discounted cash flow approach to valuations and believes it to be the single most important tool in valuing assets of any kind, right from stocks to as exotic assets as royalties and lottery tickets.
Let us read the master's own words on his thoughts -
"The formula we use for evaluating stocks and businesses is identical. Indeed, the formula for valuing all assets that are purchased for financial gain has been unchanged since it was first laid out by a very smart man in about 600 B.C. (though he wasn't smart enough to know it was 600 B.C.)."
"The oracle was Aesop and his enduring, though somewhat incomplete, investment insight was ‘a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush’. To flesh out this principle, you must answer only three questions. How certain are you that there are indeed birds in the bush? When will they emerge and how many will there be? What is the risk-free interest rate (which we consider to be the yield on long-term US bonds)? If you can answer these three questions, you will know the maximum value of the bush 3/4 and the maximum number of the birds you now possess that should be offered for it. And, of course, don't literally think birds. Think dollars."
"Aesop's investment axiom, thus expanded and converted into dollars, is immutable. It applies to outlays for farms, oil royalties, bonds, stocks, lottery tickets, and manufacturing plants. And neither the advent of the steam engine, the harnessing of electricity nor the creation of the automobile changed the formula one iota 3/4 nor will the Internet. Just insert the correct numbers, and you can rank the attractiveness of all possible uses of capital throughout the universe."



Lessons from Warren Buffett – 42

In the previous article, based on Warren Buffett's letter for the year 2000, we saw how the master reaffirmed his faith in the discounted cash flow approach to valuations by using one of Aesop's fables. Let us go further down the same letter and see what other things he has to say.
Mother Nature’s envy?
Mother Nature would be really envious of the stock markets. She has taken centuries to turn apes into rational human beings. But the same human beings and mind you, even the smartest of them turn irrational in no time when they dabble in stocks. What else could explain the dotcom boom where P/E ratios of 100 were a common sight?
In a lot of instances, the companies under consideration did not even earn a profit. Closer home, some of the power stocks and those in the infrastructure space were valued 2-3 times more than their FMCG counterparts. Now, how long does it take to realise that while FMCG companies can double their capacities in no more than 6-8 months and thus start producing cash flows immediately, power companies with even the best execution records will take no less than 3 to 5 years to come up with a new capacity, thus taking cash flows from this new capacity that many more years to fructify and hence, resulting in lower valuations. Warren Buffett has summed it up best when he has said that investors resorting to the above-mentioned investments were actually not investing but were engaging in speculation. .



Speculation: Investor's enemy no. 1 As per the master, speculation as opposed to investment is not based on valuations and margin of safety but is dependent on making assumptions about what will the second investor pay for a stock that the first investor has bought a few days or a few months ago. It brings in good money as long as the game lasts but when one ends up being the last person to hold the stock with no one else willing to buy it, losses could be painful. It is indeed such an activity that the master advises investors to avoid at all costs and be rational in one's decision making. Indeed, attractive valuations and a good track record should be the foundation upon which an investment is based and not speculation.
Master's golden words Buffett says, "The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.”
“They know that overstaying the festivities - that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future - will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There's a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands."





Lessons from Warren Buffett – 43

In the previous article based on the master's letter for the year 2000, we heard him talk about how investors, in their irrational exuberance, tend to gravitate more and more towards speculation rather than investment. Let us go further down the same letter and see what other investment wisdom he has to offer.
IPO – It’s Probably Overpriced If it is out there in the corporate world, it has to be in the master's annual letters. Over the years, Mr. Buffett has done an excellent job of giving his own unique perspective of the happenings in the business world. Whatever be the flavour of the season, you can rest assured that it will be covered in the master's letters. Since the letter for the year 2000 was preceded by the famous 'dotcom bubble' and the flurry of IPOs associated with it, the master has spent a fair deal of time in trying to give his opinion on the same. And as with other gems from his larder of wisdom, strict adherence here too could do investors a world of good.
On IPOs, the master goes on to say that while he has no issues with the ones that create wealth for shareholders, unfortunately that was not the case with quite a few of them that hit the markets during the dotcom boom. Unlike trading in the stock markets, IPOs usually result in transfer of wealth and that too on a massive scale from the ignorant shareholders to greedy promoters. The master feels so because taking advantage of the good sentiments prevailing in the markets, a lot of owners put their company on the blocks not only at expensive valuations that leave little upside for shareholders but most of these companies end up destroying shareholder wealth.
Hence, while investing in IPOs, two things need to be closely tracked. One, the issue is not priced at exorbitant valuation and second, the company under consideration does have a good track record of creating shareholder wealth over a sustained period of time. Thus, if an IPO is only trying to sell you promises and nothing else, chances are that you are playing a small role in making the promoter, Mr. Money Bags.
Master's golden words Let us hear in the master's own words his take on the issue. He says, "We readily acknowledge that there has been a huge amount of true value created in the past decade by new or young businesses, and that there is much more to come. But value is destroyed, not created, by any business that loses money over its lifetime, no matter how high its interim valuation may get."
He further adds, "What actually occurs in these cases is wealth transfer, often on a massive scale. By shamelessly merchandising birdless bushes, promoters have in recent years moved billions of dollars from the pockets of the public to their own purses (and to those of their friends and associates). The fact is that a bubble market has allowed the creation of bubble companies, entities designed more with an eye to making money off investors rather than for them. Too often, an IPO, not profits, was the primary goal of a company's promoters. At bottom, the ‘business model’ for these companies has been the old-fashioned chain letter, for which many fee-hungry investment bankers acted as eager postmen."



To conclude, the master says, "But a pin lies in wait for every bubble. And when the two eventually meet, a new wave of investors learns some very old lessons: First, many in Wall Street - a community in which quality control is not prized - will sell investors anything they will buy. Second, speculation is most dangerous when it looks easiest."

Lessons from Warren Buffett – 44

In the previous article, we heard the master talk about wealth transfers to greedy promoters during IPOs in the letter for the year 2000. Let us go further down the same letter and see what other investment wisdom the master has to offer.
The master's macro bet Usually, Buffett refrains from making precise comments about the future especially at the macro level. But if he is willing to bet a large sum on the likeliness of an event happening, then indeed we must sit up and take notice. In the letter for the year 2000, the master has made one such prediction and was willing to bet a large sum on it. The prediction was about the magnitude of growth in profits that would take place among the 200 most profitable companies in the US at that time. Since the master does not believe in short term predictions, the time horizon that was assumed was ten years.




The CEO with a crystal ball The letter for the year 2000 came out at a time when the practice of a CEO predicting the growth rate of his company publicly was becoming commonplace. Although Buffett did not have an issue with a CEO setting internal goals and even making public some broad assumptions with proper warnings thrown in, it did annoy him when CEOs started making lofty assumptions about future profit growth.
This is because the likelihood of the CEO meeting his aggressive targets year after year on a consistent basis and well into the future was very low and hence this amounted to misleading the investors. After having spent decades researching and analyzing companies, the master had come to the conclusion that there are indeed a very small number of large businesses that could grow its per share earnings by 15% annually over a period of 10 years. Infact, as mentioned in the above paragraph, the master was even willing a bet a large sum on it.
The reasons may not be difficult to find. In free markets, the intensity of competition is so high that it is very difficult for profitable players to maintain high growth rates for consistently long periods of time. Unless the business is endowed with some extremely strong competitive advantages, competition is likely to nibble away at its market share and cut into its profit margins, thus making high growth rates difficult.
Let us hear in the master's own words his take on the twin issues of CEO's lofty projections and sustainable long-term profit growth.


The golden words "Charlie and I think it is both deceptive and dangerous for CEOs to predict growth rates for their companies. They are, of course, frequently egged on to do so by both analysts and their own investor relations departments. They should resist, however, because too often these predictions lead to trouble."
He further adds, "It's fine for a CEO to have his own internal goals and, in our view, it's even appropriate for the CEO to publicly express some hopes about the future, if these expectations are accompanied by sensible caveats. But for a major corporation to predict that its per-share earnings will grow over the long term at, say, 15% annually is to court trouble."
The master reasons, "That's true because a growth rate of that magnitude can only be maintained by a very small percentage of large businesses. Here's a test: Examine the record of, say, the 200 highest earning companies from 1970 or 1980 and tabulate how many have increased per-share earnings by 15% annually since those dates. You will find that only a handful have. I would wager you a very significant sum that fewer than 10 of the 200 most profitable companies in 2000 will attain 15% annual growth in earnings-per-share over the next 20 years."
Adding further, the master says, "The problem arising from lofty predictions is not just that they spread unwarranted optimism. Even more troublesome is the fact that they corrode CEO behavior. Over the years, Charlie and I have observed many instances in which CEOs engaged in uneconomic operating maneuvers so that they could meet earnings targets they had announced. Worse still, after exhausting all that operating acrobatics would do, they sometimes played a wide variety of accounting games to "make the numbers." These accounting shenanigans have a way of snowballing: Once a company moves earnings from one period to another, operating shortfalls that occur thereafter require it to engage in further accounting maneuvers that must be even more "heroic." These can turn fudging into fraud. (More money, it has been noted, has been stolen with the point of a pen than at the point of a gun.)"

Lessons from Warren Buffett – 45

Last week, in our concluding article on Buffett's letter for the year 2000, we discussed master's views on tendencies of certain CEOs to make lofty projections of their companies' future earnings potential and the risks associated with such projections. Let us now move on to accumulating wisdom from the letter for the year 2002*.
In his 2002 letter, the master has devoted a fair deal of time and space to the topic of derivatives. Infact, the master's prognosis on the risks associated with derivatives come so perilously close to describing the current US sub-prime crisis that one would be forgiven for assuming that Mr. Buffett has access to a crystal ball.
Derivatives: Devious or delightful? Much like most of the other inventions, derivatives too, were created for the benefit of mankind in general and commerce and trade in particular. It was especially helpful to smaller firms that did not have the capacity to bear big risks. Derivatives enabled such firms to transfer some of these risks to stronger, more mature hands. But again, like most of the other inventions, derivatives can also be put to misuse. Abuse of the same, as has become more frequent these days, could lead to dire consequences. Furthermore, the very nature of a derivatives contract makes it risky to the users. This is because unless accompanied by collaterals or guarantees, the final value in a contract depends on the payment ability of the parties involved.
The master is also of the opinion that since a lot of derivatives contract don't expire for years and since they have to be provided for in a company's accounts, manipulation could become a serious threat. For e.g., incorporating overly optimistic projections into a contract that does not expire until say 2018 could lead to inflated earnings currently. However, if the projections fail to materialize, they could lead to potential losses in the future. In an era of short-term profit targets and incentives, such measures result in higher CEO salaries. But they hurt long-term shareholder value creation.
This is what the master has to say on the issue:
"Errors will usually be honest, reflecting only the human tendency to take an optimistic view of one's commitments. But the parties to derivatives also have enormous incentives to cheat in accounting for them. Those who trade derivatives are usually paid (in whole or part) on "earnings" calculated by mark-to-market accounting. But often there is no real market (think about our contract involving twins) and "mark-to-model" is utilized. This substitution can bring on large-scale mischief. As a general rule, contracts involving multiple reference items and distant settlement dates increase the opportunities for counterparties to use fanciful assumptions."
He further goes on to add "The two parties to the contract might well use differing models allowing both to show substantial profits for many years. In extreme cases, mark-to-model degenerates into what I would call mark-to-myth."
Highlighting other dangers of derivatives, the master finally goes on to say something that if central banks around the world, importantly the US Fed, would have paid proper heed to, it could have been probably able to avert or maybe minimize the enormous damage that is being caused by the US sub-prime crisis.
We conclude the article with the reproduction of that comment.
Weapons of mass destruction The master says, "The derivatives genie is now well out of the bottle, and these instruments will almost certainly multiply in variety and number until some event makes their toxicity clear. Knowledge of how dangerous they are has already permeated the electricity and gas businesses, in which the eruption of major troubles caused the use of derivatives to diminish dramatically. Elsewhere, however, the derivatives business continues to expand unchecked. Central banks and governments have so far found no effective way to control, or even monitor, the risks posed by these contracts."


Lessons from Warren Buffett – 46

In the previous article based on Warren Buffett's 2002 letter to shareholders, we got to know the master's views on derivatives and the huge risks associated with them. Let us go further down the same letter and see what other investment wisdom the master has to offer.
The demise of the good CEO? The great bull run of the 1980s-1990s in the US also brought with it a host of corporate scandals. A lot many CEOs, in their attempt to amass wealth quickly did not think twice to do so at the expense of their shareholders. It is fine for a CEO to take home a hefty pay package if the company he heads has put up an impressive performance. But to rake in millions when the shareholders i.e., the real owners of the business get nothing or only a tiny percentage of what the CEOs earn, amounts to nothing but daylight robbery. This is of course impossible without the complicity of the board of directors, whether voluntary or forced. Sadly, these people are increasingly failing to rise to the responsibilities entrusted to them by the shareholders, allowing CEOs to get away scot-free. It is this very issue of corporate governance that the master has talked about at length in his 2002 letter to shareholders. Alarmed by the rising incidents of CEO misconduct, Buffett argues that in a room filled with well-mannered and intelligent people, it will be 'socially awkward' for any director to stand up and speak against a CEO's policies and hence he fully endorses board meetings without the presence of the CEO. Furthermore, he is also in favour of 'independent' directors provided they have three essential qualities. What are these essential qualities and why he deems them to be so important? Let us find out in the master's own words.
The master's golden words On the nature of directors, Buffett said, "The current cry is for ‘independent’ directors. It is certainly true that it is desirable to have directors who think and speak independently - but they must also be business-savvy, interested and shareholder oriented."
He goes on to add, "In my 1993 commentary, those are the three qualities I described as essential. Over a span of 40 years, I have been on 19 public-company boards (excluding Berkshire's) and have interacted with perhaps 250 directors. Most of them were ‘independent’ as defined by today's rules. But the great majority of these directors lacked at least one of the three qualities I value. As a result, their contribution to shareholder well-being was minimal at best and, too often, negative. These people, decent and intelligent though they were, simply did not know enough about business and/or care enough about shareholders to question foolish acquisitions or egregious compensation. My own behavior, I must ruefully add, frequently fell short as well: Too often I was silent when management made proposals that I judged to be counter to the interests of shareholders. In those cases, collegiality trumped independence."
Lessons from Warren Buffett – 47

Last week, we read Warren Buffett complain about failings of independent directors in his letter to shareholders for the year 2002. Let us go further down the same letter and see what other investment wisdom he has on offer. Last week, we read Warren Buffett complain about failings of independent directors in his letter to shareholders for the year 2002. Let us go further down the same letter and see what other investment wisdom he has on offer.
'Independent' directors: How independent are they?
It is a known fact that Buffett pays a great deal of attention to the management of companies before investing in them. And the reasons behind this obsession may not be difficult to find. Since it is the management that is responsible for making most of the capital allocation decisions in a business, which in turn are central for creating long-term shareholder value, it is imperative that a management allocates capital in the most rational manner possible.
However, as we saw in the last article, the list of managers or CEOs with a 'quick rich' syndrome is swelling to dangerous proportions, thus forcing shareholders to pin all their hopes on the board of a company or more importantly on the independent directors for a bail out. But as mentioned by Buffett, most independent directors (including him) on several occasions have failed in their attempt to protect the interest of shareholders owing to a variety of reasons.
After narrating his experience as an independent director, the master moves on and gives one more example where independent directors have failed miserably to protect shareholder interest. The companies under consideration are investment companies (mutual funds). The master says that directors in these companies have only two major roles, that of hiring the best possible manager and negotiating with him for the best possible fee. However, even while performing these basic duties, the independent directors have failed their shareholders and he goes on to cite a 62-year case study from which he has derived his findings.
Even in an era where shareholdings have gotten concentrated, some institutions find it difficult to make management changes necessary to create long-term shareholder value because these very institutions have been found to be sailing in the same boat i.e., neglecting shareholder value so that only a handful of people benefit. Buffett goes on to add that thankfully there have been some people at some institutions that by virtue of their voting power have forced CEOs to take rational decisions.
Let us hear in Buffett's own words, his take on the issue:
Master's golden words Buffett says, "So that we may further see the failings of 'independence', let's look at a 62-year case study covering thousands of companies. Since 1940, federal law has mandated that a large proportion of the directors of investment companies (most of these mutual funds) be independent. The requirement was originally 40% and now it is 50%. In any case, the typical fund has long operated with a majority of directors who qualify as independent. These directors and the entire board have many perfunctory duties, but in actuality have only two important responsibilities: obtaining the best possible investment manager and negotiating with that manager for the lowest possible fee. When you are seeking investment help yourself, these two goals are the only ones that count, and directors acting for other investors should have exactly the same priorities. Yet when it comes to independent directors pursuing either goal, their record has been absolutely pathetic."
On the increased ownership concentration and how certain people are forcing managers to act rational, Buffett has the following to say - "Getting rid of mediocre CEOs and eliminating overreaching by the able ones requires action by owners - big owners. The logistics aren't that tough: The ownership of stock has grown increasingly concentrated in recent decades, and today it would be easy for institutional managers to exert their will on problem situations. Twenty, or even fewer, of the largest institutions, acting together, could effectively reform corporate governance at a given company, simply by withholding their votes for directors who were tolerating odious behavior."
He goes on, in my view, this kind of concerted action is the only way that corporate stewardship can be meaningfully improved. Unfortunately, certain major investing institutions have 'glass house' problems in arguing for better governance elsewhere; they would shudder, for example, at the thought of their own performance and fees being closely inspected by their own boards. But Jack Bogle of Vanguard fame, Chris Davis of Davis Advisors, and Bill Miller of Legg Mason are now offering leadership in getting CEOs to treat their owners properly. Pension funds, as well as other fiduciaries, will reap better investment returns in the future if they support these men."


Lessons from Warren Buffett – 48

we learnt how independent directors at a lot of investment partnerships have put up disastrous performance through Buffett’s 2002 letter to shareholders. Let us further go down the same letter and see what other investment wisdom he has on offer.
Of practicing and preaching Ok, we have heard a lot about the failings of independent directors and their apathy towards shareholders. However, preaching is one thing and practicing and offering a solution is completely another. Since Buffett himself runs a company, it will be fascinating to understand the guidelines he has set forth for choosing independent directors on his company's board as well as the compensation he pays them. He has the following views to offer on the kind of 'independent' directors he would like to have on his company's board:
Buffett says, "We will select directors who have huge and true ownership interests (that is, stock that they or their family have purchased, not been given by Berkshire or received via options), expecting those interests to influence their actions to a degree that dwarfs other considerations such as prestige and board fees."
Interesting, isn't it? If a person derives most of his livelihood from a firm and if he is made a director of the firm, he is quite likely to take decisions that result in maximum value creation. While this approach may not be completely foolproof, it is indeed lot better than approaches at other firms where such a criteria is not set forth while looking for independent directors.
Furthermore, on the compensation issue, Buffett has the following to say:
"At Berkshire, wanting our fees to be meaningless to our directors, we pay them only a pittance. Additionally, not wanting to insulate our directors from any corporate disaster we might have, we don't provide them with officers' and directors' liability insurance (an unorthodoxy that, not so incidentally, has saved our shareholders many millions of dollars over the years). Basically, we want the behavior of our directors to be driven by the effect their decisions will have on their family's net worth, not by their compensation. That's the equation for Charlie and me as managers, and we think it's the right one for Berkshire directors as well."
Buffett's superb understanding of human psychology is on full display here. If a person is not behaving rationally, force him to behave rationally by smothering his options. First, choose those people that have a large and true ownership in a firm so that they really think of what is good and what is bad for the firm in the long run. Secondly, pay them a pittance so that like other shareholders, they too derive greater portion of their income from the firm's profits and not take a higher proportion of its expense. This is also likely to pressurise them further to take decisions that are in the shareholders' interest. Indeed, some great lessons on how an independent director should be chosen and to ensure that he continues to think for the shareholders and not against them.


Lessons from Warren Buffett – 49

So, far we have written three articles on some key corporate governance policies that Buffett has so beautifully explained in his 2002 letter to shareholders. However, we are not done yet. After driving home his views on independent directors and their compensation, he has now turned his attention towards the audit committees that are present at every company.
Audit committees - Substance and not form
The primary job of an audit committee, says Buffett, is to make sure that the auditors divulge what they know. Hence, whenever reforms need to be introduced in this area, they have to be introduced keeping this aspect in mind. He was indeed alarmed by the growing number of accounting malpractices that happened with the firm's numbers. And he believed this would continue as long as auditors take the side of the CEO (Chief Executive Officer) or the CFO (Chief Financial Officer) and not the shareholders. Why not? So long as the auditor gets his fees and other assignments from the management, he is more likely to prepare a book that contains exactly what the management wants to read. Although a lot of the accounting jugglery may well be within the rule of the law, it nevertheless amounts to misleading investor. Hence, in order to stop such practices, it becomes important that the auditors be subject to major monetary penalties if they hide something from the minority shareholders behind the garb of accounting. And what better committee to monitor this than the audit committee itself! Buffett has also laid out four questions that the committee should ask auditors and the answers recorded and reported to shareholders. What are these four questions and what purpose will they serve? Let us find out.
The acid test
As per Buffett, these questions are -
1. If the auditor were solely responsible for preparation of the company's financial statements, would they have in any way been prepared differently from the manner selected by management? This question should cover both material and nonmaterial differences. If the auditor would have done something differently, both management's argument and the auditor's response should be disclosed. The audit committee should then evaluate the facts.
2. If the auditor were an investor, would he have received - in plain English - the information essential to his understanding the company's financial performance during the reporting period?
3. Is the company following the same internal audit procedure that would be followed if the auditor himself were CEO? If not, what are the differences and why?
4. Is the auditor aware of any actions - either accounting or operational - that have had the purpose and effect of moving revenues or expenses from one reporting period to another?
Toe the line or else...
Buffett goes on to add that these questions need to be asked in such a manner so that sufficient time is given to auditors and management to resolve any conflicts that arise as a result of these questions. Furthermore, he is also of the opinion that if a firm adopts these questions and makes it a rule to put them before auditors, the composition of the audit committee becomes irrelevant, an issue on which the maximum amount of time is unnecessarily spent. Finally, the purpose that these questions will serve is that it will force the auditors to officially endorse something that they would have otherwise given nod to behind the scenes. In other words, there is a strong chance that they resisting misdoings and give the true information to the shareholder.

Lessons from Warren Buffett...50

After enthralling readers with a wonderful treatise on how good corporate governance need to be practiced at firms in his 2002 letter to shareholders, the master rounds off the discussion with three suggestions that could go a long way in helping an investor avoid firms with management of dubious intentions. What are these suggestions and what do they imply? Let us find out.

The 3 that count

The master says, “First, beware of companies displaying weak accounting. If a company still does not expense options, or if its pension assumptions are fanciful, watch out. When managements take the low road in aspects that are visible, it is likely they are following a similar path behind the scenes. There is seldom just one cockroach in the kitchen.”
On the second suggestion he says, “Unintelligible footnotes usually indicate untrustworthy management. If you can’t understand a footnote or other managerial explanation, its usually because the CEO doesn’t want you to.”

And so far the final suggestion is concerned, he concludes, “Be suspicious of companies that trumpet earnings projections and growth expectations. Businesses seldom operate in a tranquil, no-surprise environment, and earnings simply don’t advance smoothly (except, of course, in the offering books of investment bankers).”

Attention to detail

From the above suggestions, it is clear that the master is taking the age-old adage, “Action speak louder than words”, rather seriously. And why not! Since it is virtually impossible for a small investor to get access to top management on a regular basis, it becomes important that in order to unravel the latter’s conduct of business; its actions need to be scrutinized closely. And what better way to do that than to go through the various filings of the company (annual reports and quarterly results) and get a first hand feel of what the management is saying and what it is doing with the company’s accounts. Honest management usually does not play around with words and tries to present a realistic picture of the company. It is the one with dubious intentions that would try to insert complex footnotes and make fanciful assumptions about the company’s future.
We would like to draw curtains on the master’s 2002 letter to shareholders by putting up the following quote that dispels the myth that manager ought to know the future and hence predict it with great accuracy. Nothing could be further from the truth.


CEOs don’t have a crystal ball

The master has said, “Charlie and I not only don’t know today what our businesses will earn next year – we don’t even know what they will earn next quarter. We are suspicious of those CEOs who regularly claim they do know the future – and we become downright incredulous if they consistently reach their declared targets. Managers that always promise to “make the numbers” will at some point be tempted to make up the numbers.”
Hence, next time you come across a management that continues to give profit guidance year after year and even meets them, it is time for some alarm bells.
Lessons from Warren Buffett – 51
In the last article, we rounded off our discussion on the master's 2002 letter to shareholders. Now, let us move forward to letter for the year 2004 (we have omitted the letter for the year 2003 as most of what Buffett has said in that letter has been covered before) and try and discuss the investment wisdom there in.
Its not all skill and craft
Although it has been proved beyond doubt that Buffett is a stock picker of the highest order, even he would have been able to accomplish little had he not been blessed with a favorable corporate environment. Since the underlying earnings are the sole determinant of where a stock could be headed for the long-term, it is very important that a firm keeps on growing its earnings. And this is where the master benefited from being at the right place at the right time. As per Buffett's own admission, for 35 strong years leading upto the year 2004, American businesses had delivered terrific results.
Hence, it could have been relatively easier for investors to earn good returns provided they did not make few of the mistakes that are very common and which usually lead to sub-par and even disastrous results despite a favorable environment for stocks. The master has been kind enough to spell out some of the reasons why investors have had experiences ranging from mediocre to disastrous from investing in stocks even when corporates grew their earnings handsomely.

The golden words

Buffett says, "There have been three primary causes: first, high costs, usually because investors traded excessively or spent far too much on investment management; second, portfolio decisions based on tips and fads rather than on thoughtful, quantified evaluation of businesses; and third, a start-and-stop approach to the market marked by untimely entries (after an advance has been long underway) and exits (after periods of stagnation or decline). Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful."
Small is indeed big

If one wants a real life proof of what could be achieved by eschewing the above mentioned pitfalls, one need not go any further than have a look at the master's own track record. During the period 1964 - 2004, while the broader market performed well and grew at a CAGR of 10.4%, the master, by sticking to the above-mentioned principles have produced returns that on an average have beaten the broader market by 11.5% year after year. Out performance of this magnitude for such a long period of time translated into a sum that at the end of the period under consideration is a whopping 54 times more than the one produced by staying invested in the broader market! In fact, to make matters worse, quite a few investors have not been able to match even the market returns because they have tried to seek the very routes to profit making that the master has so vehemently opposed in the above paragraph.
This more than anything goes to show how frictional costs like portfolio management fees, brokerage, taxes and the like, which seem trivial currently can hurt your investment performance in the long run. A valuable lesson indeed, for anyone who is looking to be a net investor in equities for the next many years.
Lessons from Warren Buffett – 52

In the previous article, we learned how investors earn suboptimal returns from markets by not understanding the real meaning of investing. Let us go further down the same letter and see what other investment wisdom the master has on offer.
Although the master is a self-proclaimed macroeconomics basher, it does not stop him from proffering his views on the US economy from time to time. And he has devoted a substantial part of the 2004 letter to a discussion on the same. The US economy, it should be noted, has been running a huge current account deficit for quite some time now and the master, in his own unique way has gone on to provide an excellent account of the long-term repercussions of the same. A current account deficit, for the uninitiated, means that an economy has been importing more goods and services than it can export. While a current account deficit may not be novel to close followers of the Indian economy, for the US economists it was indeed something they had not been exposed to for a long period of time.

The master's golden words

Trying to explain the long-term impact of consistently running a current account deficit, the master goes on to add, "Should we continue to run current account deficits comparable to those now prevailing, the net ownership of the U.S. by other countries and their citizens a decade from now will amount to roughly $11 trillion. And, if foreign investors were to earn only 5% on that net holding, we would need to send a net of $.55 trillion of goods and services abroad every year merely to service the U.S. investments then held by foreigners. At that date, a decade out, our GDP would probably total about $18 trillion (assuming low inflation, which is far from a sure thing). Therefore, our U.S. "family" would then be delivering 3% of its annual output to the rest of the world simply as tribute for the overindulgences of the past."
He further adds, "This annual royalty paid the world - which would not disappear unless the U.S. massively under consumed and began to run consistent and large trade surpluses - would undoubtedly produce significant political unrest in the U.S. Americans would still be living very well, indeed better than now because of the growth in our economy. But they would chafe at the idea of perpetually paying tribute to their creditors and owners abroad. A country that is now aspiring to an "Ownership Society" will not find happiness in - and I'll use hyperbole here for emphasis - a "Sharecropper's Society." But that's precisely where our trade policies, supported by Republicans and Democrats alike, are taking us."

The rise of the Sovereign Wealth Funds

Indeed, the burgeoning foreign exchange reserves at most Asian countries and the rapid rise of the sovereign wealth fund in recent times can be attributed to the American extravagance that the master has dealt with in the above paragraphs. Clubbed together, these institutions own trillions of dollars worth of US assets, the interest on which will of course have to be paid by the US government, which in turn will come from the pockets of the average American citizen. Thus, as so rightly pointed out by the master, the sons will truly pay for the sins of their fathers.
Lessons from Warren Buffett – 53

Last week, through the master's 2004 letter to shareholders, we got to learn his views on the rising American trade deficit and its implications in the long run. Let us turn to the letter for the year 2005 and see what investment wisdom he has in store for us therein.
Frictional costs: Self-inflicted wounds

As evident from his previous letters, Buffett has acquired a reputation of being a strong critic of transaction costs or what he calls as the frictional costs in the field of investing. These frictional costs are nothing but the brokerage or investment management fees that investors pay to brokers and money managers. The reasons for the master's abhorrence towards high frictional costs are not difficult to find. Since stock prices are nothing but the aggregate of corporate earnings between now and the day the world would cease to exist, high frictional costs reduce the returns that an investor stands to earn by staying invested in businesses. Infact, thanks to the proliferation of things like hedge funds and private equity, so huge have these frictional costs become that they are threatening to take a very large pie out of the investor's total returns. It is this very trend that the master has come down so heavily upon. In his own unique style, Buffett has given a very good account of how institutions like hedge funds and investment banks, which he calls 'Helpers', have inflicted great damage to investor returns. For the sake of ease of understanding, Buffett has assumed the 100% ownership of all American businesses to lie in the hands of one large family that he has named as 'Gotrocks'.
Let us see what happens to 'Gotrocks' i.e. the owners when the 'Helpers' start to increasingly meddle in their affairs.
The golden words

The master says, "A record portion of the earnings that would go in their entirety to owners - if they all just stayed in their rocking chairs - is now going to a swelling army of Helpers. Particularly expensive is the recent pandemic of profit arrangements under which Helpers receive large portions of the winnings when they are smart or lucky, and leave family members with all of the losses - and large fixed fees to boot - when the Helpers are dumb or unlucky (or occasionally crooked)."


Buffett further adds, "A sufficient number of arrangements like this - heads, the Helper takes much of the winnings; tails, the Gotrocks lose and pay dearly for the privilege of doing so - may make it more accurate to call the family the Hadrocks. Today, in fact, the family's frictional costs of all sorts may well amount to 20% of the earnings of American business. In other words, the burden of paying Helpers may cause American equity investors, overall, to earn only 80% or so of what they would earn if they just sat still and listened to no one."

Lessons from Warren Buffett – 54

In the previous article, we went through the master's letter for the year 2005 and discussed how frictional costs are nothing but self-inflicted wounds. Let us now turn to the letter for the succeeding year and see the investment wisdom contained therein.
Succession planning

With Buffett getting older with each passing year (and mind you, also smarter), it became important that succession planning got its due. And as with most of the other aspects of his life, the master was right on the button on this one as well. By the time the letter for the year 2006 arrived, Buffett along with his company's board had already zeroed in on three candidates that were best placed to replace the master if something were to happen to him. However, the master admitted to not being well prepared in succession planning on the investment side of Berkshire's business. Thereby emerged a plan where the master agreed to hire a far younger man or woman with the potential to manage a very portfolio and who would eventually take charge of Berkshire's investment side of the business.
It is indeed beyond anyone's doubt that the master will not have problems in finding scores of smart people who would be more than willing to associate themselves with Berkshire Hathaway. However, as per Buffett, in order to enjoy a long period of out performance, smartness alone will not do the trick. There are few other qualities that are equally if not more important. What are these other qualities? Let us find out in the master's own words.
The golden words

The master says, "Picking the right person(s) will not be an easy task. It's not hard, of course, to find smart people, among them individuals who have impressive investment records. But there is far more to successful long term investing than brains and performance that has recently been good.
He goes on to add, "Over time, markets will do extraordinary, even bizarre, things. A single, big mistake could wipe out a long string of successes. We therefore need someone genetically programmed to recognize and avoid serious risks, including those never before encountered. Certain perils that lurk in investment strategies cannot be spotted by use of the models commonly employed today by financial institutions."
Buffett further adds, "Temperament is also important. Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior is vital to long-term investment success. I've seen a lot of very smart people who have lacked these virtues."
Indeed, the events that are currently unfolding in the global financial markets, especially the US, give a real life example of how smart people, who lacked the requisite temperament could bring really big firms virtually to their knees. Years of profits at Lehman Brothers for example were completely wiped out by betting big on the wrong assumption that housing prices in the US can never fall. Fall it did and in the process, as the master so rightfully mentioned, a single, big mistake wiped out a long string of success.
Lessons from Warren Buffett – 55

In the previous article , we touched upon the qualities that Buffett seeks in his successor. Let us go further down the same letter of 2006 and see what other investment wisdom he has to offer.
Buffett and his benevolence

If succession planning wasn't proof enough, Buffett gave one more indication in his 2006 letter to shareholders that the time has indeed come to start planning for the post-Buffett era. The indication though had nothing to do with Berkshire's operations per se. It concerned the use of his enormous wealth post his death. While the subject seemed to be bugging him for quite some time, he made an official announcement in the 2006 letter whereby he arranged the bulk of his holdings to go to five charitable foundations. He however inserted a special clause that all his donations were to be used within 10 years rather than let it run like a perpetual foundation and hence, use it over a much longer period of time. He has indeed spelt out the reasons for the same. Let us read Buffett’s words as to why he chose to take such a decision.
The golden words

"I've set this schedule because I want the money to be spent relatively promptly by people I know to be capable, vigorous and motivated. These managerial attributes sometimes wane as institutions - particularly those that are exempt from market forces - age. Today, there are terrific people in charge at the five foundations. So at my death, why should they not move with dispatch to judiciously spend the money that remains?"
He further adds, "Those people favoring perpetual foundations argue that in the future there will most certainly be large and important societal problems that philanthropy will need to address. I agree. But there will then also be many super-rich individuals and families whose wealth will exceed that of today's Americans and to whom philanthropic organizations can make their case for funding. These funders can then judge firsthand which operations have both the vitality and the focus to best address the major societal problems that then exist."
Indeed, even in matters as arcane as philanthropy, Buffett's understanding of the subject and his crystal clear thoughts leave an indelible impression.


Lessons from Warren Buffett – 56

In our previous article, we discussed Buffett's noble intentions of giving away most of his wealth to charitable institutions of his choice. Let us go further down the same letter (2006) and see what other investment wisdom he has on offer.
One super investor's tribute to another

Buffett has reserved a few paragraphs in the letter for the year 2006 for one of his dear friends, Walter Schloss, who in that year was 90 years of age. While we could have conveniently omitted this section from our discussion on Buffett's 2006 letter, we thought otherwise so that we could present before you a living proof of another success story in value investing. And this one is a lot less complicated than the Buffett's.
Buffett describes Schloss as an epitome of minimalism. He did not go to business school. In fact, he did not even attend college. His office had nothing beyond a few file cabinets (four to be precise) and his only associate was his son. His track record however could put even the most sophisticated investment manager to shame. For a period as long as 46 years, Schloss had compounded money at a far greater rate than the benchmark index, S&P 500.
And what was his approach? He followed Graham's technique of buying stocks on the cheap and then selling it when they neared their intrinsic value. Indeed, all it takes to be a successful investor to have the discipline to buy stocks on the cheap and not do anything silly.
Using Schloss' example, Buffett comes down heavily on B-School teachers, who rather than trying to study success stories such as Schloss', still insist on teaching the efficient market theory (EMT) to students. Naturally, these students, when they come out of college, rather unsuccessfully try to outsmart investors like Schloss with theories that have little or no practical value.
Let us hear in Buffett's own words his view on Schloss and the fate of EMT fed students who try to beat him.


The golden words

Buffett says, "Following a strategy that involved no real risk - defined as permanent loss of capital - Walter produced results over his 47 partnership years that dramatically surpassed those of the S&P 500. It's particularly noteworthy that he built this record by investing in about 1,000 securities, mostly of a lackluster type. A few big winners did not account for his success. It's safe to say that had millions of investment managers made trades by a) drawing stock names from a hat; b) purchasing these stocks in comparable amounts when Walter made a purchase; and then c) selling when Walter sold his pick, the luckiest of them would not have come close to equaling his record. There is simply no possibility that what Walter achieved over 47 years was due to chance."
He further adds, "Tens of thousands of students were therefore sent out into life believing that on every day the price of every stock was "right" (or, more accurately, not demonstrably wrong) and that attempts to evaluate businesses - that is, stocks - were useless. Walter meanwhile went on over performing, his job made easier by the misguided instructions that had been given to those young minds. After all, if you are in the shipping business, it's helpful to have all of your potential competitors be taught that the earth is flat."